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Published on Saturday, 24 March 2018 23:05

Gent Wevelgem 

Sunday 25th March, 250.4kms

The Flanders festival of cycling moves on to Gent on Sunday for what is traditionally a Classic for the sprinters, in Gent Wevelgem. What a race we saw on Friday in the E3 Harelbeke, with QuickStep Floors bossing the race from start to finish to deliver an incredible win for Niki Terpstra. 

The crash early on had a big impact on the race, splitting the race up and seeing QuickStep Floors come to the front and pull the front group clear. They took control of the race early on and when an opportunity came for Lampaert and Terpstra to ease off the front, and the rest of the QSF team blocked the road, they were suddenly away. 

Sagan went down in a separate crash and although he said that he was unaffected by it and it was down to the other guys 'playing games' with him that was why he had a poor day, he was really not himself. He looked stressed and under pressure from a long way out and he completely blew up on the Paterberg, I didn't think he was 100% and steered clear of him, but I didn't expect that performance.

Meanwhile, Lampaert couldn't stay with Terpstra, but the chasing pack swelled in size, with some power coming up like Vanmarcke and Stuyven. It looked like it was all over for Terpstra with just under 6kms to go when the chasers brought the gap down to just 12".

But somehow, they contrived to throw it away. BMC must shoulder a lot of the blame, seeing as they had three guys in the chase group, but to be fair, they were all out on their feet. Kung was coming to the front, but was actually losing time, Roelandts just kept attacking for some insane reason rather keeping a consistent pace. There was just no team spirit with them. Infighting about who was going to do the chasing amongst the others meant that the pace kept rising and falling, and the likes of Trentin had to keep pulling hard just to try to give himself a chance in the sprint, if they caught Terpstra. 

Gilbert and Stybar were a total pain in the ass to the chase, they did a brilliant job to disrupt the chasers from getting a smooth chase going, infiltrating the rotation repeatedly and slowing it down every time they came to the front. And no one had the balls to tell them get the fuck out of there, like they should have been told. And you got to hand it to Terpstra - he was on it all day.. From forcing the split with Lampaert, to driving up the gap with him, to dropping him and then going solo, and holding off a strong chasing group for as long as he did. Yet another superb win for the 'Wolfpack' this season. Wasn't a bad day bet-wise in the end, as all the matchbets won, and GVA landed the e/w at 8/1, to make it a nice 7.85pt profit on the day. It was looking good for a while with Benoot, GVA and Trentin in the chase and Trentin looking really strong, but in the end he had nothing left for the sprint. 

Gent Wevelgem is another step though towards the monuments to come in the weeks ahead. It's been running since 1934 but this year sees the 80th running of the race. It may have its cobbled sections, including the famous Kemmelberg, but it is generally a sprinters race, hence a lot of the big sprinting guns are here - a lot, but not all - no . And last year Greg Van Avermaet won from a break with Jens Keukeleire in a very strange race. An Elite group had formed at the front of the race including GVA, Sagan, Keukeleire, SK Andersen and Terpstra and a dramatic drag-race played out on the wide, open roads heading in to Wevelgem.

And then one of the strangest moments of the season happened. GVA went to the front to take a pull, Keukeleire on his wheel, Sagan behind him. But Sagan pulled off, waved Terpstra through as he didn't want to be leaned on once again to do the pulling, but Terpstra was having none of it and Andersen was not keen to take it up either. (below)

So GVA and Keukeleire just rolled away and all of a sudden the gap was too big to bridge and they held it to the finish. Sagan's group was almost caught by the peloton, but he held on to take 3rd.    

Despite it being known as a bit of a sprinters' race, it was back in 2014 when we last saw a proper sprint, John Degenkolb getting the better of Démare and Sagan with Vanmarcke in 4th. Sagan won this pulling wheelies in 2013 after soloing away in the last 4kms from a group of 10 in a race that had been shortened by some 90kms because of extremely cold weather conditions. With the wind often having a major impact on the race it's not always a big bunch that gets to fight out the finish. Edvald Boasson Hagen (09), Bernie Eisel (10), Boonen (12) and Sagan (13) have won from reduced bunches and small breaks. 

The Route 

The race is again similar to last year's route, but is 1km longer than last year's to make it the longest edition of the race in at least 21 years. 250kms of hilly Belgian roads, only 16kms less than this year's Ronde Van Vlaanderen, it's going to be a real test. And not only that, but after they introduced a new feature to the race to honour the fallen of World War I with sections of 'Ploegsteerts' last year, they have extended it to three sections in total this year.

It starts in Deinze and not in Gent as the name might have you think, and head more north to the coast this time rather than a north-west direction like they did last year. Things start to get interesting (unless the winds near the coast have already caused splits) when they reach the south-western corner of the course and head in to the Hellingen, or cobbled climbs. 

There are nine key Hellingen, (well 11 if you count the fact they do the Kemmelberg and the Banenberg twice) which could cause breaks to go and splits to happen. The first one, the Catsberg comes after 136kms and the last time up the Kemmelberg comes with just with 34kms to go. The Catsberg may be cobbled but there are large sections of it that have been tarmacked over so it isn't all that difficult on the face of it, but it hits 19% in parts!

The Kemmelberg is similar in that it is partly paved, partly cobbled but can be very rough in parts and is one of the steepest slopes in the whole country. The ascent is steep and rough, but the descent is even worse - a very narrow, dangerous track that barely passes as a road. It has been used as a launch pad for attacks before, such as in 2007 when Marcus Burghardt blew it apart on the descent with four others before he went on to win. Same the year before when Hushovd won it after escaping with a bunch of 32 riders on the roads after the top of the Kemmelberg.

That and the Monteberg are the last opportunities for breaks to go so the sprinters and their teams will need to be on their guard as the run in to the finish is pretty flat and straight and perfect for setting up their speedsters. It was also where Sagan made his race-winning move two years ago. 

The weather can often play a big part in this race, but it looks like it will be a pretty good day in northern Belgium, with no rain forecast. The wind might cause some problems though as it will whip up to around 15mph, coming at them from the south-west. This means it will be a cross-wind for most of the day, especially on the long straight roads from Ypres to Menen, and a tail-wind to the finish in Wevelgem.

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Contenders and Favourites

So what do we make of what we saw unfold in E3?! Well, for one, QSF look unstoppable at the moment and the 'Wolfpack' are really riding as a cohesive team unit, a strange turn of events from a team that all too often seemed to get tactics wrong as individuals seemed to care more about themselves than the team. BMC were a mess, they didn't know what to do or how to really coordinate that chase in to working properly. Kung was exhausted, Roelandts apparently was scrambling for gels and then just kept attacking late on. And GVA wasn't exactly forthcoming in his turns at the front either, I think he gambled that it would come back together and he was feeling ok for the sprint. 

Well, let's start again with the bookies favourite, Peter Sagan. He's 9/2 for it, probably twice the price that he probably would have been were it not for his showing in E3. What happens now with him? I didn't think he was in great shape ahead of E3, I thought he was sluggish in Strade and MSR, and he really faded away in E3 towards the end. Was he injured more than he let on? Did he just throw a strop when QSF ganged up on him? 

Sagan is good at bouncing back though. He often follows poor rides with outstanding rides, you can just never write him off. But I am going to write him off from a betting point of view this week, I think he isn't 100% and his team are poor. At that price, even if it is twice what it should be maybe, I'm not interested. 

What about Greg Van Avermaet? Winner of this last year, with a stealth attack.. I can't see him being left to do the same this year. Take that away and I actually think it will be very hard for him to get away from the power and numbers of QSF this year. The Baneberg and the Kemmelberg are far too far out from the finish for him to try to go solo or take a small group with him, but if it comes to a reduced group finish, can he win the sprint? Possibly.. but Gilbert beat him on Sunday. The team were a mess on Wednesday, will they do better tomorrow with a full compliment, as long as they don't get caught up in crashes again? Maybe. 

QuickStep Floors hold the key to the race though, as they are absolutely flying at the moment, in all sorts of races, and with nine different riders winning nineteen races already this season. Philippe Gilbert was a strange one on Friday, he was one of the blockers who helped Lamps and Terps go up the road, then had an armchair ride in the chase, before attacking himself inside the final 30kms. But, it didn't get very far, and he was quite easily brought to heel by Kung. He then went back to being a passenger, disrupting the rhythm of the chase, before nipping out to outsprint GVA to make it a 1-2 for QSF. 

He has been made the top favourite by the Belgian Niewsblad newspaper for this tomorrow, but how does he win? It will probably involve him attacking from far out, either solo or with a smal few accomplices that he can outsprint (or attack again later on) or else even to be dragged to the line in a reduced group and he fights out the sprint. He does look in pretty good shape, discount him at your peril. 

But that scenario of him winning a reduced sprint probably counts on Elia Viviani not having made it, as they hold a real live Ace card there too, if he were able to make it to the finish in the lead group. Winner of the Driedaagse on Wednesday, powerfully coming from a long way back in the sprint to comfortably win it. He said that he owed his team for all the work they did for him in MSR, as they towed him to a great position in the last 500m, but he had nothing in the legs when push came to shove and he just went backwards. Can he survive over the hills and cobbles of GW? 

Well, he finished 15th in 2013, but was outsprinted by Kristoff, Démare and Greipel in the fight for minor placings. He DNF'ed in 2015 and 2016 though and has 3/3 DNFs in the Ronde, 2/2 DNFs in OHN and Paris-Roubaix. I am leaning towards another DNF from him tomorrow though than a win, or at least, I am not sure he'll make the sprint, if there is one. 

 Can Niki Terpstra ride away again? I'm not sure he has the energy after that effort Friday, and he won't want to kill himself ahead of Flanders next Sunday. Lampaert also put in a huge amount of work on Friday to help Terpstra buld up a big enough lead to see him safe to the finish, he too might be low in reserves tomorrow.

Maybe Zdenek Stybar will be their man for tomorrow then? He had it relatively easy Friday, floated home with the chasers, obstructing their chase effort, but wasting no energy himself. He might also be given the green light to go for it tomorrow, work for the team next week in the Ronde and then go for it again in PR. His record here is poor, but his record in PR is superb - two 2nds, a 5th and a 6th and he has finished 8th and 9th in the Ronde. 

Sep Vanmarcke might only have a 7th place against his result in E3 Friday but he was very very strong, helping to pull the third group on the road up to a strong group that included GVA and Benoot and the other QSF guys. And he then continued pushing, tearing up the Paterberg with the group in one long line behind him (right) and pushed hard to try to catch Terpstra. 

He showed he had good legs in OHN, attacking late to take 3rd place, and he has finished 2nd here twice and 4th and 6th too, he really likes this race. I think he could be a real dark horse for this race, from a betting point of view, as he's a big looking 33/1 to me, I thought he'd be around 16s. 

The question to picking the winner though seems to revolve around whether it will end in a sprint or not.. In the last ten runnings of the race, there have been only two pure sprint finishes, won by Boonen (2011) and Degenkolb (2014), with a reduced group of 13 fighting out a sprint in 2012, won by Boonen ahead of Sagan. The last three wins have been solo by Paolini, Sagan from a group of four and GVA from his group of two with Keukeleire. 

But if you look at last year's result, the bunch were not that far away at all from making it a bunch sprint, and it was taken by Sagan ahead of Terpstra strangely, with Degenkolb, Boonen, Matthews, Modolo and Colbrelli all behind them. The sprinters were basically out on their feet by the time they got to the sprint, it was the strong men who took the first two places. We have seen a trend in the last 12 months though with a lot of attacks now coming from a long way out and making it all the way to the line. GVA, Naesen and Gilbert in E3 last year, Gilbert in the Ronde, GVA and Keukeleire in GW last year, and even this week with De Gendt, Pantano and Terpstra all winning from breaks. 

Teams fight amongst themselves as to who will do the pulling, chases underestimate the break, the break are fully focused and the riders in the break are very, very strong. We could get the same tomorrow, if we get some really strong guys like SVM, GVA, Gilbert, Terpstra etc make the break - who is going to do the chasing? And will they be strong enough to pull them back? We saw last year that two guys on their own held off a bunch of sprinters who should have been contesting the win. 

I think I am going to cover two options though with my picks. I like Vanmarcke at the price, and I'm also going to stick with Matteo Trentin I think after picking him for E3 Friday. I thought he was really good, he made all the right moves, he covered attacks and he looked comfortable on the climbs. They just need to have a word with him and just tell him that he needs to do less work and sit in. He exhausted himself in the futile chase of Terpstra, to the point that he only finished 10th in a sprint that he should really have been contesting to win. I got him at 33/1 with Betfair on Friday afternoon, I thought that was a good price, he's 22/1 now with Skybet and I think that is still worth a bet. He could make the break that wins, he could win from a reduced sprint, if things go his way.  

I am not all that interested in most of the other sprinters, although Micheal Matthews went well here last year and went ok in E3 too, he came home in a little group with Valgren and Backaert, the first group after the GVA/Gilbert group. Arnaud Démare finished 14 mins down in E3, Alexander Kristoff 8 mins, they struggled, hampered by the crash. They could both go ok of course if it does come to a bunch sprint, they are strong and experienced in races like this. 

The one sprinter I want to have onside though is Dylan Groenewegen, as I think he is one of the fastest sprinters in the race, and has a chance I think of making the finish. Stylish winner of KBK a few weeks back, he has also finished 5th in the Dwars Door Vlaanderen. He was 80th here last year, but I think we can ignore that result, he was 25th in OHN, in the same group as Démare, not that far back. He's 11/1 with 365, 8/1 with most others, 11/1 looks ok to me. 

Sonny Colbrelli has to be considered too though I think, as he is riding well. He got caught out in E3 though out on the Kwaremont, and came home with Kristoff 8 mins down. There's nothing like the Kwaremont or the Paterberg here though, so he should make it to the finish in a prominent position like he did in OHN and KBK where he finished 8th and 3rd respectively. At 28/1, he's worth a small interest. 

Jasper Stuyven is sure to go well too, he looked strong too on Friday, just had to come from too far back too like SVM, Koen de Kort buried himself to get Stuyven back in the race, and he managed 8th place in the end. Winner of KBK (and 2nd), 4th in Paris Roubaix (17) and 4th in this year's OHN, he's another that could sneak in to it at 25/1. 

Oliver Naesen, Gianni Moscon, Edward Theuns, Jens Keukeleire - all riders who will be involved, but I'm not sure they have the winning of this in them. John Degenkolb continues his build-up to Paris-Roubaix, and is a past winner here, but I'm not sure he'll be winning tomorrow. Luke Durbridge is riding well, he could form part of a winning break, but it'll be hard for him to win from there. Magnus Cort Neilsen, Jens Debuscherre, Wout Van Aert, Alexey Lutsenko - all could feature too, but no interest from me in backing him. 

It's going to be a good race I think, E3 was a great race, full of action and tension, and I think a lot of riders have scores to settle after it. GVA can't be happy with the way BMC rode, SVM will be angry with having to burn so much energy to get back in to contention, only to watch Tersptra steal the race from under their noses. Gilbert probably feels that he is strong enough to win and had an easy-ish race like Stybar, and Sagan will be desperate to get back on track.

Anything can happen - we could see a weird break make it again, but I have a feeling we might have a group of maybe 40 riders coming to the finish, and we could see late attacks, or it come to a sprint finish. So, I hope to cover most angles with my picks. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Dylan Groenewegen at 11/1 with 365

0.5pts e/w on Matteo Trentin at 22/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.5pts e/w on Zdenek Stybar at 25/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.3pts e/w on Sep Vanmarcke at 33/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.3pts e/w on Sonny Colbrelli at Skybet paying 4 places

Match Bets:

SVM to beat Naesen - 2pts at 11/8

GVA to beat Stuyven and Trentin to beat Roelandts - 2pts at 5/4

Groenewegen to beat Viviani - 3pts at 4/6