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Published on Saturday, 07 January 2017 23:20

Australia Nationals Road Race 

8th January, 183.6kms

The Australian national road race championships take place tonight, starting in the small hours of Sunday morning. The Women and U23s kick things off and the Elite men's race starts at 12.15pm local time, taking on the usual course around Buninyong in Ballarat.

Last year sawJack Bobridge destroy the field, capitalising on his hour-record attempt form to solo away and build up a lead of over 9 minutes at one point, eventually winning by 2'52" from Cam Meyer and Pat Lane, with Nathan Haas winning the sprint for 4th from Jay McCarthy and Simon Gerrans. You would have to think that Orica-Scott will not make the same mistake this year with the top two favourites for the race in their line-up.

Two years ago Heinrich Haussler mugged Caleb Ewan on the line to win the Gold medal, out sprinting the Orica-GreenEdge man in a two-up sprint ahead of the remnants of the break that they were part of for the last 45kms or so. Neil Van Der Ploeg of Avanit Racing Team took 3rd place and they finished 52 seconds ahead of the group containing Richie Porte and Cadel Evans. In 2014, the race saw an elite trio of Gerrans, Evans and Porte slip away near the finish, with Gerrans always the most likely of the three to win it. Gerrans missed out two years ago after breaking his collarbone.

The Route

The race is over 18 laps of a 10.2km rolling course, with the first 3km going uphill from the flag drop up Mt Bunninyong road, followed by 3km on a flattish plateau, before descending for nearly 5km down the steep, narrow winding descent of Fiskin Road. The last kilometer though is pretty straight and levels out more or less for the last 500m.

The climbs come in very quick succession, the first averaging 6.4% for 1.4km and the second, which start less than 500m later is also 6.4% average over 1.1km. The climbs are neither steep enough, nor long enough to really cause any damage to these guys normally, but doing them over and over again for 18 laps sees the race blow up usually in the latter stages. Three years ago when they hit the climb for the final time, the cream of the elite, Porte, Evans, Gerrans and Meyer got away and stayed away from the rest. Cameron Meyer had done a great job for Gerrans, attacking and playing the carrot up the road, forcing Evans and Porte to chase, and still came home 5" back in 4th place. Two years ago Drapac and OGE tried to blow the race up from about 5 laps out and they succeeded in getting a gap big enough to allow them to fight out the finish between them.

Contenders

Caleb Ewan at 5/1 or Simon Gerrans at 5/2? It looks like it is between the O-S pair judging by the betting, and you can understand why. Ewan is clearly in great form, and if it comes down to a sprint, then he's the best here by a mile. Gerrans loves this race and this course and is going for a hat-trick of wins. He is the team leader and will go better over the hill when the pace is really at it's hottest in the last lap.

Nathan Haas is in ok form but is very confident of a good result here - he is backed up by Lachlan Morton and Ben O'Connor and thinks that they are good enough to make podium, and that is most likely going to be him. Winner of the sprint for 4th last year, I'm not sure Gerrans would have let him win it though if they were sprinting for a medal and not 4th place. Haas had this to say:

"With the first race of the year being a championship event, tensions are high, nerves are sharp and nobody really knows who’s going fast or how the race will pan out. It’s what makes the Australian nationals what they are, intriguing. A real winner always prevails because 18 laps of a 2.3km climb, you need real fitness, so no hiding. Plans for our team start with being a unit, using our strengths and playing smart for either a closed or open race. I think between us, there is no knowing which step, but we should podium." 

Jay McCarthy had a good season last year, he started well in the TDU when he took the leaders jersey for a while and got us a little excited for a while for our 66/1 pick. He is looking for a big ride in the TDU again this year so should be pretty fit and ready to go.

Michael Hepburn showed in stage 2 of the Bay Crits that he is in fine form, soloing away from the pack to win by 6" from Ian Bibby. He was 100/1 before that, that price is long gone though and he is now best price 40/1, which is about right I think. Damien Howson, Neil Van Der Ploeg, Sam Spokes, Luke Durbridge, Lachlan Morton and Steele Van Hoff could all be involved in the final stages of the race, but would be a surprise to see any of them winning it I think. 

So I think this is Orica's to lose again though, and they have a very strong squad here with six quality riders, full of power to support Gerrans and Ewan. I think Gerrans' power and nous will see him to victory though, when the big attacks come in the last lap he should be able to cover them and win a reduced sprint. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Simon Gerrans at 5/2 with Bet365