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Published on Friday, 24 July 2015 23:18

TDF Stage 20

Modane Valfréjus to Alpe d'Huez

Saturday 25th July, 110.5kms 

As Michael Jackson once said, "This is it"... The big finale, the Alpe d'Huez, the decider? Micky J was a big fan of cycling of course, 'Just beat it' was his motivational song about taking someone's Strava KOM and 'Farewell my summer love' was his lament to the end of the Tour de France every year. Anyway, I digress. It's Alpe d'Huez day!

The organisers have thrown in two very short, but brutally hard stages right at the end of the race, I guess with the intention of trying to make two wildly exciting days of attacking that could have decided the outcome to the race. I suspect they were hoping that Froome didn't have such a considerable lead and that the Fab 5 were all pretty close to each other in the GC, making for a battle royale up the Alpe. 

It's still possible of course that we get a big shake up in the GC on this final day, we saw a chink of weakness in Froome today when Quintana stole 32" back to now leave him 2'38" behind Froome. It was massively frustrating today to see him skip away from Froome like I expected, he should have won the stage. But yet again on this stage I we have been denied a decent winner by one rider going up the road and beating us. I've had more seconds than Peter Sagan and it's really bloody annoying!

Fair play to Nibali, at least he had the balls and the desire to go on the attack early, he was rewarded with a fabulous stage win. But behind, there was nothing. Not even when Froome looked rattled did Quintana, Valverde and Contador try something. It was obvious later why Valverde and Contador didn't try something, they were cooked and couldn't hold on to Froome's wheel for very long. As for Quintana, it's clear he has the ability, I think there were two issues going on with him today. Firstly, he just looks like he has no confidence in his ability and looks intimidated by Froome - Froome was clearly struggling, yet he waited and waited and waited, until they were past the hardest part of the climb. Just before he attacked he rolled around the outside and had the look of a man who wanted to attack but didn't know if he should. He was spinning it so easily, looking around him, checking where Froome was, and only when he was finally happy that Froome looked in a bad place he attacked. Too late Nairo. He took over a minute off of Nibali in less than 5kms, but if he had attacked earlier he might have caught him and put over a minute in to Froome. 

The other issue at play though is that possibly they were riding to try to preserve Valverde's 3rd place spot on the podium and if Quintana had attacked earlier he would have exploded the group further from the top of the climb and Valverde could have lost lots of time. If that is the case, then they are cowards and bottlers. Why give up the chance of winning the stage and the Tour to keep him in 3rd place? Seems insane, but that's how it looks. But given how Valverde cracked today again and how well Nibali is riding, I wouldn't be surprised to see Nibali nick the time needed to move in to 3rd place tomorrow.

Momentum has swung for sure in Quintana's direction, but it will be a very big ask to take that much time off of Froome. He will not take it on the Alpe alone, he will have to go on the Croix de Fer and risk it all on the descent to take a minute lead or more in to the bottom of the Alpe. If he does that and Froome is cracking behind, he could take enough time to win. But of course we saw a few years ago how he had a bad moment on the Alpe when Richie Porte went back to the car to get him something like an energy gel, so you'd never know. He looked in big trouble at that point. 

The Route

The stage is a short hop from Modane to the Alpe, just 110kms. If it was a flat route, they'd do it in less than 2 1/2 hours. But it is anything but flat of course! There was a last minute change to the route in June of course, due to landslides on the Galibier, which was originally part of the route, preceeded by the Telegraph before going on to Alpe d'Huez. Instead, they will now stay in the Maurienne valley a little longer and descend for 25kms from the start instead of the originally planned 13.5kms.

They start the day by descending for 25kms to Saint Jean de Maurienne, which should make for a brutally fast start to the day, as every guy with any bit of energy or ambition left will want to try to get in the break of the day, that *might* make it to the Alpe in the lead at least. Some may get up the road, but it's likely that further moves will be coming and going for about the first hour as they start on the not too inconsiderable obstacle of the Col de La Croix de Fer.

The climb to the summit in it's entirety is a huge 31kms long, but it goes up in three waves. The first 5kms average 5.9%, with a kilometre at 9.8% until they reach La Bettaz, where the last kilometre flattens out to just 3%, and then there's a little descent for 1km. The second wave is the hardest part of the climb, averaging 8.8% for 6kms, hitting double digits in parts. This is probably where someone who wants to go long and try to take a lot of time (that's you Nairo!) could attack and try to get a gap. But they'll have to go really hard and get a decent gap as once they pass the 12kms mark on the climb it eases off considerably for a while, descending and going along a plateau for 4kms through the Grand Tunnel..

The final wave is the longest at 13kms long, and comes in two parts more or less as well. The first 7kms are far easier than the last 6kms, with the first 7 averaging just 4.1%, the second part averaging 7.6%, almost twice as steep as the first part. The official stats for the climb are 29kms at 5.2%, but it's an irregular climb and some guys wiill really struggle on the last 6kms which start from Saint Sorlin d'Arves. They crest the top with just just 54kms to the finish, 28kms of which are descending off the Croix de Fer.

They reach Allemont after 84.5kms and spend around 12kms in the valley before they tackle the famous Alpe d'Huez. 13.8kms at an average of 8.1%, it's a proper beast and one of the most iconic 'venues' for a sporting event in the world. It's a fantastic end to any stage, a terribly hard climb that will separate the men from the boys. The first 11kms are the hardest, averaging 8.3%, with sections regularly in the 9-11% area, with the first 2kms alone averaging 10.2%. The rest is quite steady as they weave through the enormous crowds and the 21 switchbacks, and as they approach the easier last 2.8kms it really kicks up, averaging 10.2% as they head towards Turn no.1. The finish is usually contested by only 1, 2 or not many more riders, so fighting for the right line in to that last left hander with 220m to go probably isn't something they will need to worry about. . 

Contenders and Favourites

It has to be between two men doesn't it? Nairo looks a certainty to beat Froome again tomorrow given how today's stage went, he clearly has the upper hand now as I had been saying.. He is getting stronger while Froome is looking tired. Still, how amazing a rider is Froome that even when he looks beaten up and attacked from all angles, including from arseholes at the side of the road, he still put 1'12" in to the likes of Valverde, Contador and Pinot in less than 5kms. But Quintana was better, and will be even better tomorrow on a climb that he says suits him very well. It has been his dream for a long time to win this stage so he'll be going flat out for the win tomorrow.

It's a short stage so it might be a bit easier to keep the break under control, something they will have to do if Froome and Quintana fancy a stage win. There are a lot of tired bodies out there now, but a lot of guys (and their DS's) will be desperate for one last crack at a stage win. Guys like Mollema, Gesink, Sanchez, Bardet, Pinot, Rolland, Talansky, Frank and Contador are on the fringes, being the strongest of the rest, but it's hard to see how they will get away and stay away. They are nearly all fighting for placings in the GC, so they will find it hard to get away and if Froome and Quintana take off again, it's unlikely they will be able to stay with them all the way to the finish and then out-gun them at the finish.

So who wins? Well, I was really disappointed with Quintana today leaving it so late and also to have been beaten by Nibali who pulled a sneaky move attacking while Froome had a mechanical. He can say what he likes but it was clear as day he looked, looked again and only when Froome was pulling over to the side of the road did he then attack. But as Michael Rasmussen said in Twitter tonight, 'It's a battlefield - not a sewing room!" If Nibali was still in the group of favourites when he attacked I don't think he'd have been able to go with him either, so the stage should have been Quintana's. 

I think he wins. I think he will go earlier this time in an attempt to take as much time as possible, he needs to leave it all on the road, no regrets. He says he is up for it, and said he tried his best today:

"We did what we could and Froome is very strong. At least we’ve tried. I’ll try again tomorrow from further out, let’s see how strong he is then. We’ll try for the stage win at least. The last 5km seemed to be the most appropriate because the rhythm set by Tinkoff was very high. I've missed the final touch. Tomorrow it'll be all or nothing. We'll also try to keep Alejandro Valverde on the podium."

So he has said he'll try again and from further out this time, let's see. The worry I have is that he goes from far out, but it doesn't work out and he blows his chances of a stage win. But I think he has the strength and the power to go and stay away. Whether he can take 2'29" is a different matter altogether, it would be miraculous and bloody brilliant, but it's unlikely. Well actually according to Betfair, it's a 10/1 shot, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility. But it will probably take either a really bad day for Froome, a hunger knock (unlikely given his experience of that now), a mechanical or an incident with an over-enthusiastic fan on the Alpe. The other worry I have is what he said about preserving Valverde's podium position - does that mean he doesn't attack early enough again and stays with Valverde longer than he should? Screw that Nairo, you have to look after yourself!

Froome of course could find a little something extra tomorrow, it's the last mountain stage, it's the big mountain stage and he has said he wants to win on the Alpe in the yellow jersey. And he is sure to be the only one to throw it down to Quintana and try to chase him down. The only question in my mind to stop them is if they mess around too much on the Croix de Fer, and possibly let a break get too much of a lead that they cannot pull back in time, like with Nibali today. 

Joaquim Rodriguez, Romain Bardet and Froome are in a 3-way battle for the Polka dots jersey, For Rodriguez and Bardet to win it they will need to get in the break of the day and then take the KOM points on the Croix de Fer and finish in the top placings of the Alpe also, unless Froome is out of all the top points. So expect to see these guys in the break, along with the usual suspects again like Kruiswijk, Fuglsang, Gautier, Pauwels, Plaza and Barta. Froome is in the driving seat though for the KOM jersey, he doesn't need to chase points mid-stage, but if Bardet takes the max 25pts at the top of the CDF, and Froome doesn't score any points, Bardet can finish in 8th on the summit and take the jersey.

If Froome comes 2nd to Quintana on the climb, Bardet only has to finish 8th, but if Froome wins the stage, Bardet needs to finish in 5th on the stage. It's a really hard one to call that, but with the battle for the points in the middle of the stage and the battle at the end for high placings on the final mountain finish, you'd have to say Froome is probably going to be taking home the spots jersey as well.   

It's decision time then. I can't get away from thinking Quintana will have the final say in terms of a stage win and will do his best to close the gap. I really hope he goes earlier this time and possibly with the assistance of a team-mate who was up the road in a break, really starts to pile on the seconds. It would just be a very exciting finish to the race. Froome should be good enough to finish second, so the 4/1 that was available on him was a decent each-way free shot at the win, he is pretty likely to get in to the top 3. The best price is 7/2 now though so it would mean a small loss if he comes 2nd or 3rd if you back him each-way.

So who chases them home for the 3rd place each-way money? There are some big priced guys outside the top two to try to pick from, but I'm leaning towards Nibali who is a big looking 16/1 and Sammy Sanchez, who seems to be getting better as the week goes on. Nibali had a tough stage today, but he is now clearly the best of the rest at the moment and may attack early again tomorrow, but this time Froome and Quintana may catch him before the finish and he could hold on for third. He is battling with Valverde for that 3rd spot on the podium so I expect him to be trying his absolute hardest tomorrow. Sanchez has finished 2nd to Rolland in 2011 and 4th (or 2nd in the official books) in 2010 on the Alpe d'Huez stages, and with rain possibly affecting the stage, I'm giving him another go to try something tomorrow.

Recommendations:

3pts win on Nairo Quintana at evens with Boyles or Corals

0.2pts each-way on Sammy Sanchez at 80/1 with Boylesports

0.3pts each-way on Vincenzo Nibali at 16/1 with Boylesports

Matchbets:

Pinot to beat Bardet - 2pts at 5/6 with PP

Kruiswijk to beat Kangert - 2pts at 4/6 with Lads

Quintana to beat Froome, Rolland to beat Talansky, Contador to beat Gesink - 1pt at 9/4 with PP