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Published on Wednesday, 24 May 2017 22:32

Giro d'Italia St 18

Moena to Ortisei/St. Ulrich

Thursday 25th May, 137kms 

The organiser's website is calling this a Queen stage, just like they called the Stelvio stage a Queen stage too.. Although it's short at just 137kms, I guess they thought this stage was so tough that they felt like it deserved the title of Queen stage too. 

This is going to be a short, but wild stage I feel.. it's only 137kms, it should be flat-out racing from the very start of the stage to the final uphill pull to the line in Ortisei. There is once again a huge amount of elevation gain, almost 4,000m in just those 137kms. 

Not much to say about today, a crazy break of some 40 riders chased after 3 solo riders which included Pierre Rolland and Matej Mohoric and some 200kms later Pierre Rolland managed to take the first win for Cannondale in over 2 years. It was impressive from Rolland, he was there from the start and was the most powerful in the end, but it just goes to show how crazy the Giro has been that Rolland was to win on a stage like today. Rui Costa and the UAE team should have won the stage, but after all their hard work all day, with 4 men in the final selection, they were left empty-handed. But they did manage to lift Polanc in to 10th in the GC and in to 2nd in the White Jersey competition, less than 2 mins behind Jungels now.

I'm delighted for Cannondale though, they have worked hard, sometimes screwing up badly and have been roundly criticised and mocked for their inability to get riders in to breaks. And even today, when the break went they only had Woods in the group of 40.. But Rolland tried, tried and tried again and when he did get a gap, the momentary pause by the chasers, waiting for someone to take up the chase saw him quickly gain 17" and the gap just kept going up. He did the last 10mins of the ride at nearly 44kmph average speed, there's not many of the chasers would have been able to best that after that hard a stage.

Costa sprinted to take 2nd place, that's his second 2nd place in the race and the second stage that he should have won, he played it too cool in the end and waited for everyone else to chase. He should have known that Rolland was not a guy to let go easily. Woods was brilliant in the chase group for Rolland though jumping on all the attempts to chase him down, sitting in 2nd wheel and stalling all chase attempts. Our two matchbets came in, so if you got on Rui each-way you finished a little ahead today, if not, a small 1pt loss.. 

The Route

This 'Queen' stage (again, accordig to the organisers) starts from Moena which has been stage town six times before and goes across the Dolomites taking in 5 consecutive categorised climbs, with not a single flat stretch in between. They climb gently for the first 14kms to Canazei before they start the Passo Pordoi, a Cat 1 climb of 11.8kms at 6.7% avg, and they crest that with just 26kms gone. The Pordoi was also used in stage 14 of last year's race, when the KOM was taken by Damiano Cunego. 

After around a 16km descent and 9kms in the valley they start on the Passo Valparola, which was also used in the 2016 stage 14. This is another 13km Cat 2 climb which averages 6.4%, and after a 14km descent they pass the intermediate sprint point at La Villa / Stern. A little 6km rise at gentle gradients (3.1% avg) takes them to the foot of the third climb of the day, the Cat 2 Passo Gardenan, again, another of the climbs used in stage 14 2016, although they are not doing them in the same order. The Gardena is quite similar to the previous climbs, averaging 6.4% for 9.3kms, but once over the top of that they are on the run for home with just over 50kms left, of which over 30kms are descending. 

There is one little kick up to the Passo di Pinei, a Cat 3 climb of 5.3kms at 4.2%, it could be the launchpad for a preliminary attack to get away from whoever you are with to try to get a head start for the final climb. Once they hit the base of the descent they start on the final uphill stretch towards Ortisei. First they have to get over the Cat 1 Pontive climb which averages 6.8% for 9.3kms, with the last 3kms hitting 9.3% average, with parts as steep as 12%. 

The Pontives categorised summit comes just 4kms from the finish and marks a slope change in the closing climb. Next on the route is a false-flat uphill drag, to 1,500m before the finish, then it gets steeper for about 500m, around 7% but rising to 13% at its steepest point just 400m from the line. The road then turns right and takes a short descent on setts-paved road, up to 150m from the finish, where the road levels out. 

Contenders

So - another brutal day in the mountains, another day for Nairo Quintana to try to take time out of Tom Dumoulin. The gap has collapsed since poo-gate the other day and the whole incident just left a bad smell with what happened. But Dumoulin has taken it quite gracefully all things considered and most riders and DS's seem to be of the consensus that 'the race was on'. So this could be the chance for Nairo to really set things straight and show who's boss..

It looked to me like Nairo wasn't riding hard or wanted to attack while TomDum was off the back, he seemed to be the most concerned with the weird situation they found themselves in. He also confirmed that afterwards by stating that he was not attacking, 'it was some other teams'.. The way he sprinted across to Nibali when Nibali attacked showed me that he has great legs and it was just a pity that we didn't get to see him in full flight on the Umbrailpass. 

So what have Movistar in store for us tomorrow? It seemed to be like they didn't know what to do on stage 16, they had 3 guys up front, Anacona was in the break, he was pulled back, he went back up to them again. Everyone was waiting for the Nairo attack, but it never came, partly because of TomDum's toilet stop. Rumours were floating around that they were sending Anacona up the road as Nairo wasn't feeling good and that Anacona was going to be their GC man, but they were proved false by the end of the day. 

Izagirre, Sutherland and co are riding well but both of those guys spent the day in the break today and may feel the effects of it tomorrow. But they will have help from Bahrain Merida again, they did a lot of the pulling on Tuesday for Nibali and he repaid their support with the stage win. I think Vincenzo Nibali will want to shake things up again and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Nibali attacking on the descent of the Passo Gardena, getting a bit of a gap, charging up the Pinei and down the final descent to get a head start on the final climb. The final climb is 13kms long though so it might be a bit far out, but it's not the hardest final climb with the first two-thirds of it averaging less than 6%, only kicking up to 9.3% for the last 3kms. 

I think the break has much less chance of making it tomorrow, I think that with it being a short stage and the GC teams wanting to make it a genuine test again tomorrow, the pace is going to be frantic and the GC teams are going to push hard. There aren't many summit finishes in the race, there are few chances remaining for Dumoulin's rivals to take time off of him ahead of the final ITT, they simply have to try to put him under pressure again. That might mean attacking him from further out, possibly even on the Gardena, on its 7% slopes. If not, the 9.3% section for the last 3kms is a perfect place to attack if he's on the limit. 

Mikel Landa looks one of the strongest climbers in the race at the moment, but he left it all out on the road on Tuesday. He had a day off today though and could well be ready to go again, he might be one for the early break as he is interested in the KOM competition of course. If he goes, expect to see Omar Fraile and Luis Leon go after him to challenge for the points, although Luis Leon said in an interview this morning that he was not interested in the KOM, he just wants to win a stage.. But they all say that don't they. 

If Luis Leon Sanchez decides to let the KOM points go, or just happens to miss the break, he could bury himself in behind the GC teams and try to hang on as long as possible, he has shown on the Mortirolo he has great legs and he could well be one to try a late attack on that final climb.. Astana still don't have their stage win to dedicate to Scarponi and they are probably going to try everything they can before this race is up. He's 66/1 and can give us two possible ways of winning the stage.

I don't think Kruijswijk or Mollema are capable of winning right now, but Zakarin might go well, as long as he doesn't lose time on the descent to the final climb like he did on Tuesday, he was good at the finish on Oropa and was keen to attack Dumoulin Tuesday until his DS apparently had a word in his ear.. He could well be one to attack late on the pull up in the last 3kms, kicking hard again on the 13% section and pushing it all the way home. But.. there are cobbles/flagstones in the last 400m and he really died on the cobbles, as did Nairo, they are too lightweight! 

And what about Tom Dumoulin himself.. That final climb isn't far off being similar to Oropa, or even the Umbrailpass, where he climbed at the 5th fastest speed up it, while on his own, the rest were being paced and sharing turns. If he is still with them as they hit the last 3kms, he has a chance too, kicking on the last 400m over the cobbles like he did on Oropa. But I just have a feeling that he might be gapped a little bit on the 9.3% section and may just be too far back to challenge for the win.. 

Domenico Pozzovivo and Adam Yates are two who could also go well on this final climb, but Pozzovivo won't like the downhill final section on the cobbles and I'm not sure Yates is 100% at the moment, he was not able to go with the top guys on the Umbrailpass and was not able to make up time on the descent either. 

Can anyone else get involved? Patrick Konrad may be able to stick in there and could outsprint them in the finish, he'd have one of the best sprints of this lot and he's an intersting looking 66/1 with 365.

Ruben Plaza has been riding well for Yates this week, powering at the front for quite a lot on the climbs, maybe if he's let go up the road a stage like this would suit him. He was 80/1 with 365 when I started, but is now 50/1 with them, but is 66/1 with WillHill and that's worth a small bet. Bob Jungels at 80/1 could be another to power away in the last 3kms, but he might find the 9% section a bit hard and might be a bit off the front when the final is decided. 

It's hard to call again.. Rui Costa almost won it again today for us, if you happened to get on him, but it could be another day like today, who'd have picked Pierre Rolland to win that stage, almost no one I'd imagine. I think Quintana has to attack, how far out he attacks will be the interesting bit - whether from a long way out and really try to crush TomDum, or on that last 3kms at 9.3%.. If he leaves it that late he could still take 30-40" and the 10" bonus, which would put him in to pink.

Mikel Landa is the obvious pick again though and he's going to be fired up to take a win after he was denied by Nibali's sharp move on the final bend. He's only 6/4 with Bet365, which is very short, but 9/4 on Betfair if you can get on with the exchange. That's very short still, and it might be worth waiting and seeing how the stage is panning out, you'll probably still get 6/4 or better in play, regardless of how the stage is panning out, be it that he makes the break, or sits in and waits for the final climb. I can't really call any of the rest with confidence though, as you can see above, there are little things about each of them that I'm worried about. I'd like to back Quintana, I think he has to attack as I said and could get away..  But I'm going to take a punt on some bigger priced guys, and if its looking good for Landa or Quintana I might have a bet on them too. 

Recommendations:

0.3pts each-way on Patrick Konrad at 66/1 with WillHill

0.3pts each-way on Luis Leon Sanchez at 66/1 with PP

0.15pts each-way on Ruben Plaza at 66/1 with PP

Watch for Landa and Quintana in play 

Matchbets

Mollema to beat Jungels - 3pts at 4/6

Landa to beat Dumoulin and Konrad to beat Cataldo - 2pts at 6/4 

Formolo to beat Kruijswijk - 2pts at 5/6, all with 365