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Published on Sunday, 04 September 2016 23:05

Vuelta Stage 16

Alcañiz to Peñíscola  

Mon 5th September, 158kms 

After a very mountainous weekend, the Vuelta comes down from the mountains of Aragon and heads to the Valencian coast in order to face the final and decisive week of competition with a day most likely for the sprinters. 

They climb gently first for 90kms, then descend for the next 50kms until they hit the coast, where they then start on a flat 16kms run to the line. After a brutally hard week in the mountains, it will almost feel like a rest day for the GC men and their teams - a short stage, a gentle climb, a gentle descent and a probable sprint finish. 

That is of course excluding the breakaway men who will be hoping the sprinters teams cock it up and stay away to the finish in Peniscola.  

Another Sunday, another Etixx winner, another winner for us! Three Sunday's in a row Etixx have taken the Sunday stage and we've been on each time, I love Etixx right now! What an incredible stage today, that was proper junior racing that was, it was brilliant - Contador and Brambilla were on their game right from the 7th kilometre, attacking on a descent and getting a quick gap. And Contador had 3 team-mates, and more importantly, Nairo Quintana was also there with two team-mates. 

They quickly built up a lead of 2 minutes as panic set in behind, and when Valverde and Yates attacked on an uphill stretch all the Sky support riders went out the back door and Froome was all on his own. The guys up front worked brilliantly together and when they hit the final uphill run to the finish, Quintana finally hit the front as all the Tinkoff and Movistar support riders who had buried themselves all day fell away. It was then basically a time trial up the final climb between Quintana and Froome, and it was Quintana the winner. 

Brambilla easily took the stage for us for a great win as Quintana had ridden all the way up the final climb at full gas, but Quintana took a massive 2'37" off Froome to extend his lead over him to 3'37, more than the 3 minutes he said he needed going in to the TT. It was brilliant out of Contador again - I've said it before, and I'll say it again - like him or loath him, he's a brilliant racer and a joy to watch when he tears up scripts like he did today. And in doing so he moved to within 5 seconds of Chaves's podium place - so we have a duel between our two tips of Chaves and Contador for that top 3 place! And Talansky continues to climb, he's now up to 7th, and if he can only find a couple of minutes from somewhere he could take a top 3 from the TT! 

Over 9pts added to the pot today as the double with Brambilla and Zeits in the H2H came in, but Valverde lost by ONE place to his team-mate Moreno (why wasn't he waiting and riding with him?!) to unfortuantely bust the treble. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about the route, they start climbing gently, right from the start in Alcaniz and take in the Cat 3 Alto Castillo de Morella along the way. After 90kms they start descending gently back towards the coast, until they reach Vinaroz with 17.2kms to go, where the intermediate sprint point is. As the sprint competition is still up in the air, expect the sprinters teams to push it hard to reel in the break to take points here, as well as at the finish.

They turn south-west at Vinaroz and run along the coast to Peniscola where they do a u-turn at the far end of the town and back to the finish line with a flat run all the way to the finish in front of the beach. 

Contenders and Favourites

The break might make it today of course, as has been the case a lot in this Vuelta, the GC teams might down tools again to take it easy after a pretty hard week, they might take the rest day a day early.. but then again today was a rest day for more than half the peloton who rolled in more than 20 minutes after the time cut.. It means a lot of the peloton will have been recovering after a hard stage to the Aubisque, and may be up for an attack again tomorrow.

But honestly, I think they have a slim chance today, this is a day for the sprinters, what sprinters are left that is, and I think there are enough teams with an interest in pulling it back together to make it a sprint finish. The intermediate sprint point with 17kms to go could well be Alejandro Valverde's finish line as Movistar may well manoeuvre him in to a sprint train to take the points to try to secure the jersey. He's now only 7pts ahead of Quintana and Quintana is far more likely to take points on the uphill stages to come so Valverde needs points! 

Then it's over to the sprinters, although I woudn't be surprised to see Valverde mixing it with them then too. He will be pretty disappointed with his performance on the Aubisque so will be desperate I think to take the jersey out of this race.

You have to start with Gianni Meersman again I think, he has two stages under his belt but wants the hat-trick and Etixx will be keen to not let another stage slip away after the miss on stage 12 which should have been one for him. Lampaerts, Stybar, Serry, Velits and Bouet will be working hard I think in this stage to control things and should be the strongest leadout in the final kilometre too. Lampaerts and Stybar were really good for Meersman's wins and Bouet almost won the sprint on 12 taken by Keukeleire so he should be strong in the leadout now too. He will surely go close again if they have caught the break. They have had a brilliant Vuelta with four stage wins, but they could take another two at least by the time this race is over I think.

Fabio Felline - boxed in, held up, finished the fastest on 12 but could only take 3rd. He said that at 500m to go he was sure he was going to win but then got boxed in on the railing and couldn't get out.. Someone like Bouhanni, Cavendish or Viviani wouldn't have got boxed in though, they'd have punched a hole for themselves to get out of their predicament. That could be something to put you off backing him again though, is he lacking a killer instinct? He clearly was going fast on the line, but it was too late at that point. I'm not sure you can trust Trek to deliver him in a good position either, I think you'd be counting on him doing it himself.

Kristijan Sbaragli took 4th place on stage 4, following his 6th place on stage 2, but to be honest I thought he was pretty poor in the sprint. He was all over the place and has a terribly awkward, inefficient sprinting style. And the fact that he couldn't beat Bouet and a boxed-in Felline when he had a clear run is putting me right off him.

Michael Schwarzmann took 2nd on stage two, but since then has been finishing closer to the end of the race than the front of the race, it will be hard to see him suddenly pop up and post a good result here. Magnus Cort Neilsen took a fine 3rd place on stage 2 and put in a massive ride on stage 14 on the way to the Aubisque to help pull Simon Yates up to the remnants of the break and in to 4th place. He will either be totally wrecked from that ride, or it shows just how strong he is riding at the moment. Haig, Keukeleire and Gerrans are starting to ride really well, but how much will they commit to a chase and a leadout with two men fighting for a podium spot? They might restrain themselves a little and not risk it. 

Jempy Drucker has struggled to get in to this race and I can't see him breaking a podium spot here either. Tosh Van der Sande can get involved though in this sprint I think, Lotto Soudal have had a really poor Vuelta so far, the best they have mustered out of the race is two 8th places, a pretty pathetic return. Surely they will try to get TVDS in to position for a shot at this sprint, he says he is in great shape and he has three chances at most before the end of this race to prove it. At 33/1 he offers some value over all the shorter priced ones. 

Jonas Van Genechten took a fine win on stage 7 and finished 5th on stage 2, but can he repeat that showing on stage 7? It was a very messy sprint and one that is nothing like the flat sprint of tomorrow, and I'm not sure that he'll be as close this time around. 

There may be some late attacks near the finish though and we might see the likes of Niki Terpstra (who has done absolutely nothing in this race so far) take a flyer off the front - he could be worth having a small bet at 100/1 with Bet365, as he could also be one for the break of the day too, should they make it, it means Etixx will not have to chase. 

It could be another Etixx day though, that leadout should boss it and Meersman has been the fastest so far. And if you've backed Valverde at 7/2 and you're getting a little nervous you can back Quintana at 2/1 for 1pt to cover your stake. 

Edit, 00:30 - if you haven't backed TVDS yet, then don't - I've just seen that he crashed today - he was in the early attack group with Contador but went down and looks to be quite beaten up - with road rash on his arms and back. Sorry if you've backed him already, he may not be involved tomorrow after all. 

Edit 2, 01:30 - I've had a think about things again and Fabio Felline had a really hard day today, as he was in that break, and he even managed to ride back up to and pass Alberto Contador near the finish to take 3rd place. I wouldn't be surprised if he was cooked tomorrow and Trek might let Kiel Riejnen have a go instead. He was 3rd choice sprinter coming in here, but with Bonifazio gone and maybe Felline taking a day off to save himself for other chances later in the race, Reijnen might get a go at sprinting. At 300/1 with Betfair Sportsbook he's worth putting in the book. I also think it's worth going biggish on Cort Nielsen against Felline at 7/10 with William Hill or 4/6 with Betfair Sportsbook. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Gianni Meersman at 3/1 with various

0.5pts each-way on Magnus Cort Nielsen at 8/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Tosh Van Der Sande at 33/1 with Paddy Power (don't now...)

0.2pts win on Niki Terpstra at 100/1 with Bet365 

0.2pts each-way on Kiel Reijnen at 300/1 with Betfair Sportsbook. 

Matchbets

Meersman to beat Arndt - 3pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Sbaragli to beat Drucker, Van der Sande to beat Manzin and Cort Nielsen to beat Felline - 2pts on the treble at 3.2/1 with Bet365 

6pts on Cort Nielsen to beat Felline at 7/10 with William Hill or 4/6 with Betfair Sportsbook