- Details
- Published on Tuesday, 23 August 2016 22:54
Vuelta Stage 6
Monf. de Lemos to L. Ribera Sacra
Thurs 25th Aug, 163.2kms
A mid-mountain stage between Monforte de Lemos and Luintra, in the Ribeira Sacra, crossing the spectacular canyons of the Sil River in a succession of climbs and descents all the way to the finish-line.
In the final part of the stage, the peloton will come face to face with the Alto de Alenza, a 2nd category climb, that will not necessarily make much of a difference to the general classification, but it may well break the group up and prevent a full peloton arriving at the finish. The road narrows in the final kilometres of the stage, but it is through some of the most beautiful scenery of this year's Vuelta.
A pretty good day again today, Etixx and Meersman were brilliant again and did exactly what I expected them to do - they sat in and let Sky and BMC and the rest fight it out until the last 2kms when Stybar started to appear in to view a little.. when they hit the last kilometre and all around were losing their heads, Stybar expertly guided Meersman in to position and there was only going to be one winner with 500m to go. They were awesome and rewarded us for our faith in him again, even adding the one match bet to the pot.
It looked for a moment like we had landed the 1-2 as it appeared at first like Bonifazio had finished 2nd, he was called by the commentry in 2nd, then it seemed that it was Laurent Didier, but in fact it was Felline!! And that was very annoying as I had written this morning in my preview that I fancied him for tomorrow's stage, that I thought he would go well tomorrow and be given a chance to go for it! I'll take having a 9pt winner on the day though, it more than makes up for the last two days and puts us back nicely ahead. The loss on Bonifazio was small thankfully.
Kevin Reza pulled off a superb result for FDJ in 3rd, with Luis Leon Sanchez popping up with a surprise result in 4th, marking our books for later in the race as he's clearly going well. And 5th place was another surprise with Zico Waeytens finishing the best of the Giant-Alpecin guys as Arndt was held up by the crash.. and that was annoying too as he was one I had picked out for tomorrow's lumpy stage as it is a bit Ardennes/Flanders like.. He'll now probably be 100pts less than he was had he not finished 5th today!
There was lots of incidents in the closing kilometres though, with unprotected traffic poles in the road causing mayhem, with several riders going down, worst of all was Steven Kruijswijk who is out of the race with a broken collarbone, but Chaves also came down, although he was able to ride to the finish and looks to be ok. For a while as well it looked like Contador seemed to be down, but it was Kiserlovski instead. Understandably the riders were furious with the organisers, voicing their disgust on twitter this evening.
Philippe Gilbert had be getting a bit nervous for our 'not to win a stage' bet as he attacked off the front in the last 5kms with Simon Clarke, he was looking good for a while but was reeled in by the charging peloton. He won't have many more chances in the race though, although he cold go for a long one tomorrow...
The Route
The first 87kms are reasonably flat, but there are lots of hidden lumps and bumps along that profile. The first climb proper though comes after around 86kms, although it isn't categorised, a 5km climb up from Monfort de Lemos. After 105kms they start on the main climb of the day, the Alto Alenza, a Cat 2 climb of 10.9kms at 5.1% average. Rather bizarrely the intermediate sprint of the day comes 1.9kms before the summit of the climb, it's unlikely we'll see many sprinters involved in it.
A quick 14kms descent is followed by another climb, although again, this one isn't categorised. It does average 3.7% over nearly 15kms though and does take them to the highest point of the day. 10kms of a descent takes them to the final challenge of the day, a short, sharp pull up to the 3km to go mark, and once over the top there's a short descent and a flat 1km run to the finish line.
Route Map
Profile
Last Kms
Contenders and Favourites
This is like a day in the Ardennes and it may be one of the reasons a lot of the Ardennes type guys came here - Simon Gerrans, Philippe Gilbert, Jens Keukeleire, Jempy Drucker, Florian Senechal, Tosh Van der Sande etc. most of these guys should be able to stay in there over the lumps and bumps and could fight out the finish. The last 5kms are lumpy too with a pull up at 6% for 2kms to the 3km to go mark, then a descent and a rise to the line.
It has all the hallmarks of a breakaway stage again, and it could be a real battle to get in the break again as we have seen already in this race (and in the Giro this year, and in the Vuelta last year.. it's becoming a bit of a pattern with GC teams not caring about stage wins.. ) and again, it's another nightmare to try to pick the lottery tickets for the break.
One rider I thought about for this one was Niki Terpstra - a rolling course like this might suit him, and if he goes up the road it removes the requirement for EQS to chase, something that will probably be expected of them. Winner of a lumpy race in Belgium three weeks ago, he clearly has good legs, but has been hiding away up until now. I'm sure we'll see him in a break at some point, the trick is guessing which one and striking when his price is 150/1 and not half it the day after he gets in a break. I think he's worth a shot at that price.
Philippe Gilbert has been installed as favourite for the stage at around 10/1 and that is probably in reaction to his ride today more than anything else, although tomorrow's finish will suit him as well, with the 2kms at 6% - we saw how explosive he was today. He has a chance as well of attacking early in the stage and getting in the break, from which he would probably win, but I'm discounting him at that price, I can't have him, his attack today faded very quickly and if they were chasing him down like today they will catch him in the last kilometre again.
I'm not even going to bother trying to pick breakaway candidates, there could be any one of about 60 guys and it would just be pot-luck again to pick a 200 or 300/1 winner. I think it will come down to a peloton finish though, Etixx and BMC should fancy it tomorrow again I think and will do their best to pull it back together. But there is a possibility it might be slightly reduced, maybe 60 or 80 guys and it will be interesting to see who takes it on - will we see late attacks from puncheurs up the 5km to go drag, or will it come down to a sprint up the hill amongst those left in it?
You'd expect to see most of the same sprinters involved again though, most of them are able to cope with these sorts of hills. Gianni Meersman has to have a chance on a finish like this again, he's going so well, and with that Etixx squad, they should be able to boss that last 5kms again. Lampaert, Stybar, De La Cruz, Brambilla will probably let BMC and maybe some of the others like Movistar and Sky drive it up the 5km to go hill, as they look to keep their GC men out of trouble, then they will sweep through when they hit the flat part and in to the last kilometre. I have a sneaking feeling though that Zdenek Stybar may well be given the nod tomorrow to try his luck, he is riding just so well at the moment, and the finish suits him really well.
Trek could be a danger here today too, but maybe not with Bonifazio this time - I have a feeling that this stage is more suited to Fabio Felline, and I thought that he might be let off the leash after they have been behind Bonifazio to no success up until now. Felline likes a hilly course and a hilly finish and could well be to the fore as we hit the last kilometre, sitting on Etixx's wheels. He's got a good kick on him too and could finally get a chance to test himself. (that's what I had written this morning before he sprinted to second, so unfortunately he is now just 14/1 best price from 33/1 for today's stage.
And the other thing about Trek is that they also have Kiel Reijnen here, another who likes a tough, hilly stage and can sprint at the end of it. He won a tough stage at the Tour of Utah recently, so he could also be involved, definitely is someone I want to keep an eye on for stages to come.
I'm not sure Kristian Sbaragli and Nik Arndt will be involved in this uphill finish, Arndt maybe, but Giant-Alpecin could also let Zico Waeytens have a go in the break maybe on a course like this, I had picked him out for this stage this morning, and then he went and rode in to 5th place today.. but unfortunately at the time of writing he is not quoted by a single bookie, which is rubbish.
I feel it might be a bit too tough in the last 5kms for Sbaragli, but you'd never know. Tosh Van der Sande and Jonas Van Genechten might like this finish, but I don't think either are good enough yet, and Jempy Drucker could be a dark horse on this finish too. Late attackers? We could see the likes of Michal Kwiatkowski, Simon Gerrans, Philippe Gilbert and Simon Clarke giving it a go, but I think we may see it being a scrap between Trek and Etixx again, but it may not be the riders you would immediately think of..
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Fabio Felline at 14/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Zdenek Stybar at 20/1 with various
Matchbets