Details

Published on Friday, 01 August 2014 22:24

Clasica San Sebastian

San Sebastian, Spain

Saturday 2nd August, 219.2kms

The Clasica, or to give it its local name the Donostia-Donostia Klasikoa takes place tomorrow for the 34th time. As classics go it's a pretty new one but has built a reputation as a tough race, favoured by climbers and puncheurs. It contains a mix of riders who are tired after a hard TDF, riders in form from the TDF and fresh riders who didn't do the TDF!

Tony Gallopin was a surprise winner last year with a clever and well timed attack with 16.2kms to go. He may have been underestimated and given a bit more rope than maybe he should have been last year, but following his stage win in the TDF a few weeks back I don't think he'll be given the same sort of freedom this year. You can see his attack at 3'55" in the video below.

It is a lumpy parcours that really saps the energy and the race is usually in bits as they approach the last 50kms or so, although this year the final ascent of the Alto de Jaizkibel is further out than usual, with them cresting it with nearly 54kms still to go.

Simon Gerrans was 2nd here in 2012, with Gianni Meersman 3rd and they both are in the starting lineup again this year. 5th that year was Bauke Mollema with Purito Rodriguez in 8th. The two Belgians Philippe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet were 1st and 3rd in 2011. Nicholas Roche has finished 5th (last year but sacrificed himself to lead out Kreuziger who couldn't beat Valverde to 2nd place) and 8th ('10) and comes here on the back of a good TDF with contract negotiations going on in the background at the moment.. a good performance could add $$ to that contract! 

The Route

After starting in San Sebastian they head off on a loop of almost 100kms out in to the countryside where they start on the Alto de Itruburu after about 45kms. A Cat 1 climb which may cause a little thinning out but you would think all the main protagonists should have no problem with. As they return back to the coastal area near San Sebastian they start on the closing loop which is where the main action of the day will be.

With 120kms gone they hit the old favourite of the race, the Alto de Jaizkibel, a tough, exposed climb that drags on for around 8kms at an average of 5.6%, but with parts that hit well over 8%. We should see a thinning out on this first passage before they go down the fast and tricky descent to the base of the next challenge, the Cat 2 Alto de Arkale. This is much shorter but steeper so there may be some break attempts go again here. If last year is anything to go by, at this point there will be groups all over road attacking, chasing, counter-attacking, hanging on etc!

Once over the Arkale it's back to the foot of the Jaizkibel for another go at it, followed again by the Arkale. At this point though the route take a new turn as the organisers make them spend a little bit more time around the beautiful coastal area to maximise the promotion the city of San Sebastian gets! This means that they take in a new climb of the Bordako Tontorra, a nasty, short, sharp pinch with just over 7kms to go. It's less than 3kms, but averages nearly 10% and hits 20%+ on 3 different parts of the climb. This could well be where we see the final selection and where maybe the climbing specialists can get a gap before the charge down the other side and the fast run in to the finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

When PP first opened with their prices, a long time before any of the other bookies, they had Peter Sagan as the 9/2 favourite with Simon Gerrans as the 11/2 2nd favourite, both prices were not attractive to me at all. I think Sagan will find it very difficult to get away from the climbers (or maybe to even stay with them) on the final climb and it looks like his head has been turned by the $$$$$ Oleg is promising him because he has been riding with his head up his ass during the TDF. Gerrans still hasn't proved that he has recovered from his crash in the TDF or that he has the form to win this - it's a different sort of finish to when he finished 2nd in 2012 and he may be left behind by the move when it comes on the final climb.

Alejandro Valverde is now dueling for favouritism at around 5/1 but I have my reservations about him too - he seemed very tired at the end of the Tour and rode a really poor TT, the TT of a broken man.. Has he had enough time to get over the physical and mental load of losing the podium on the last day like that? I suppose there's no better way to get over the disappointment than to go out and win this, but I think he too might be tapped for toe when the goats accelerate on those 20% gradients in the last km of the climb.

Phil Gilbert has been anonymous recently with the Belgian Championships his only race in the last 6 weeks. Before that though he was in good form, winning two stages and the overall at the Ster ZLM Toer GP Jan van Heeswijk, and also taking the points jersey at the Belgium Tour with 3 top 6 places. He could be a real danger if he can get with a small group towards the finish. 

I think Tony Gallopin will be buzzing after his fantastic TDF win and as defending champion but I think he will not get a chance like last year again. He'll be a marked man and those steeper gradients will maybe cause him some problems just as things are being decided. Dani Moreno hasn't been seen since a pretty average performance in the Dauphiné six weeks ago so I couldn't be backing him with confidence after that lack of racing. He has probably been training hard for the Vuelta but may mean that he won't be at his racing peak just yet. 

Same could be said about Dan Martin, making his first real appearance back in the pro ranks since that shocker of a TTT in Belfast in the Giro. He too has been training for the Vuelta but I can't help but think he might struggle with his race fitness towards the end of this race. Greg Van Avermaet is in great form and was 3rd here in 2011 and 13th in 2012. He could well be one of the instigators on that final climb and is great at the type of fast descents to the finish. He may not be marked as tightly as a Valverde, Sagan or Gerrans also. At 20/1 with Coral he might be worth an interest to step on the podium again. 

Nico Roche comes here on the back of an excellent Tour where he was instrumental in Rafal Majka's stage win and helping him to win the Rainbow Jersey. He is climbing as well as he has ever done and it's coming in to his time of the year, he normally seems to do well in Aug/Sept. As he is not going to the Vuelta he can afford to have a real go at this on Sunday and he also has form on this course with a 5th and an 8th place in recent years. He will need to get in the right small group towards the finish and then maybe try to attack them again on the Tontorra as if he goes to a small sprint he'll probably be beaten. Add in the fact that he is in the middle of contract negotiations (With Sky top of the list apparently) and there could be extra motivation to put in a big ride tomorrow. At 66/1 with PP though he might be worth an e/w interest. 

Gianni Meersman is in a similar situation, comes here in great form after winning the overall and taking a 1st and four 2nd places out of the five stages of the Tour de Wallonie just this week! He was also 3rd here two years ago behind LL Sanchez and Gerro. At 40/1 with Bet365 I think that is worth a bet, he is as short as 9/1 with William Hill! 

Another who I like at a big price is Simon Geschke at 66/1 with Bet365. He won the GP du Canton d'Argovie in June beating the likes of Gilbert and Albasini and is the kind of power rider who could well find himself in the final selection. If he does, he will be hard to beat in a reduced sprint. He has the strong young South African Renardt Janse Van Rensburg with him and they could feature towards the end of this race. 

Orica Green-Edge have several more cards to play besides Gerro depending on how the race turns out, with Michael Albasini and the two Yates brothers, out of the two Adam is probably going the better right now. Albasini may well get to the finish with a small group and would be a strong candidate in the sprint but I get the feeling he may not make the selection tomorrow. One who looks very over-priced though is Ramunas Naverdauskas - fresh off his excellent stage win and stunning 3rd place in the sprint on the Champs Élysées last Sunday he will be well up for this race if he can get away on the final climb or even with a small group, that sprint that took him to 3rd place ahead of Greipel last Sunday could well get him close to a win - at 100/1 with Bet365 it just looked a crazy price - he is as short as 14/1 and 25/1 generally. 

You could also add in Slagter, Stybar, Nieve, Bardet, Bakelants, Rogers, Mollema in to the mix and you can see just how hard it could be to pick the winner of this race. Slagter, Rogers, Mollema, Bardet and Nieve could be tired after a hard TDF though. Haimar Zubeldia lives in this area and knows the roads well and leads Trek - apparently he finished 8th in the Tour last week but that is up for debate as no one actually saw him during the 3 weeks of racing. That sort of passive wheel sucking won't win him this race.. 

If I had to pick one of the favourites to side with though I think it may just be Van Avermaet that I'd like to see win it. I think he offers a little bit more value and form than some of the shorter priced guys and likes this kind of course. One important factor to bear in mind is the weather forecast - it is going to be dry and warm to start with but will have thunderstorms in the afternoon as the race comes to a head. That should favour the likes of Van Avermaet, Meersman and Geschke, some of the harder men in the peloton and I like some of my bigger priced fancies against the favourites. 

Recommendations:

0.25pts e/w on Ramunas Navardauskas at 100/1 with Bet365

0.3pts e/w on Simon Geschke at 66/1 with Bet365

0.4pts e/w on Nico Roche at 66/1 e/w with PP

0.8pts e/w on Greg Van Avermaet at 20/1 with Coral

Match Bets 

Bauke Mollema to beat Bardet - 1pt at 4/5 with Bet365

Roche to beat Moreno - 2pts at 4/5 with Bet365

Related Articles