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Published on Friday, 24 August 2018 11:10

Team Classification

Who'll win the 2018 team prize?

The Team Classification prize would appear according to the betting to be a one team affair this year with Movistar the 8/11 favourites, but can any of the other teams put it up to them? 

It is a tricky contest this year though, several teams have multiple options when it comes to the climbing stages that could see a number of teams with 2-3 riders finishing high up in quite a few stages. So it might come down to who the 3rd rider home is on those key stages, a third decent climber who can finish close will help a team to do well in this competition. Teams need luck too, you don't want one of your key men crashing out. 

Orica Scott were the 5/4 favourites to win the competition last year, but they ended up way down in 6th place, 1hr 35 mins behind the winners Astana, who were 5th favourites at 13/2. The poor performances from Adam and Simon Yates the main reasons for their lowly placing, Jack Haig finished higher up than both of them in the GC. Astana did well thanks to MA Lopez, Fabio Aru, Pelle Bilbao and Luis Leon Sanchez, who were very prominent all through the race. And that's what it takes to win this, several members of the team popping up on different stages. 

So with Alejandro Valverde, Nairo Quintana, Richard Carapaz, Winner Anacona and Andrey Amador, it's not hard to see why Movistar have been installed as the hot odds-on favourites at 4/5 to take the prize. They will have Valverde and Quintana probably in the top 10 of all the key mountain stages, maybe even the top 6, and Carapaz won't be far behind. And on some of the break stages we could see the likes of Anacona, Carapaz and Amador getting involved for the team prize.

Movistar take it pretty serious in this competition, they've won the TDF classification on three of the last four years, including just this year, but haven't had the best of times with it in recent years in the Vuelta. It's been two years since they last won it, and before that it was 2012.. This squad could well be the one to deliver the win again for them though. 

It's not often you see Bora Hansgrohe as second favourites for a team classification prize, but it is indeed the situation. Emanuel Buchmann is their main GC man, but they also have Rafal Majka for both GC days and getting in breaks, Davide Formolo, Jay McCarthy, Lukas Postlberger and Peter Sagan, and actually you can see how they are fancied, they will have riders involved in all sorts of stages and stage finishes.

But winning it? It's possible they'll go close, but they'll need Buchmann to be strong all through the race and for Formolo, Postlberger and Majka to pitch in too with big rides.. will Majka be tired? Will he time his days to try to win a stage or the KOM jersey? If so, he rolls home way down on most stages. 

And even more incredible than Bora Hansgrohe being the 2nd favourite, EF Education First are the third favourites at 11/1, I don't think I've ever seen EF so high up in the betting for a Team Classification! Yes, they have Rigo Uran who should go well, but they also have Pierre Rolland, Dani Moreno and Michael Woods.. but I fully expect at least one of them to disappoint, so I find them hard to get excited about at just 11/1. 

Astana are also 12/1, almost twice the price as they were last year, when they won the competition by 6 minutes from Movistar. They have Lopez of course who will be towards the front on the key GC days, but they also have other good climbers in Pelle Bilbao and Dario Cataldo who won't be far behind and Omar Fraile, Jan Hirt and Davide Villella who will be on the attack and could be the sort of guys who finish 10 or 15 minutes ahead of the peloton with a break some day to drag up the team in the classification. 

Bahrain Merida are another team at 12/1 and they too will be close, especially if Vincenzo Nibali has a good race. He should get better as the race goes on and by the time they hit the key mountain stages he should be right there with some of the best climbers. He's backed up by the two Izagirre brothers, who were instrumental in putting them at the top of the team classification competition in the TDF on stage 16, as they were constantly on the attack and finished way out front on several days. Padun, Pibernik and Pernsteiner will possibly be on the attack too and they are capable of decent finishes on the mountain stages too, so Bahrain might go ok too.

LottoJumbo are yet another team at 12/1, and they have two genuine stage and GC top ten contenders in Bennett and Kruijswijk. They should be up there on all the key stages, and depending on if SK is doing poorly in the GC we could well see him on the attack in the mountains too. Sepp Kuss could be a revalation in this race and we could find him finishing with the GC guys or on the attack like he was in Utah, but equally it could all be too much for him and we don't see much of him. Beyond those three though, they don't really have much for the team classification hopes, DVP, Leezer and BJ Lindeman won't do much, maybe Lars Boom will go up the road a few times. But if either of their top two falter, it's curtains for them I think. 

UAE Team Emirates are 14/1, and they have two strong candidates for decent stage placings, either with the GC men or on the attack in Dan Martin and Fabio Aru. Aru was one of the reasons that Astana took the prize last year, and although he's had a poor year so far this year, he might come good here. And if he's faltering in the GC, watch out for him on the attack to try to salvage something from his season. Dan Martin will also be looking to skip away whenever he can to add a stage win here to his win in the TDF. Conti and Petilli might get up the road on a big break day, but I can't really see the rest of the team doing anything to help and I can't see them near the top 3.

Team Sky are as big as 16/1, and it looks a big price for a team who will have DDLC and Kwiat up there most days, but also TGH and Jonathan Castroviejo should be finishing near the front on the tough stages too. Add in Salvatore Puccio and SLH in the mountains and Dylan Van Baarle in the lumpier break stages and they haven't got a bad team at all here for the prize.They will need their top guys firing on all cylinders every day though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Kwiat tire in the third week with the busy season he's had, especially with one eye on the World's. 

Mitchelton Scott were 5/4 favourites for this last year and they are 25/1 for it this year, with a very similar squad, with the exception of Chaves. The two Yates brothers are expected to perform well here of course, Simon should be up front every day, possibly winning some stages by small margins, and Adam won't be far behind. Jack Haig had a good Vuelta last year and can go well in the hills again, and Albasini, Trentin and Edmonson can get up the road in attacks that could yield big time gains, but the rest of the team won't do much for it. If either of the Yates's falter, they are done for. 

BMC are as big as 40/1 and that looks a huge price for the team that have the GC favourite and a rider who could be riding away from a lot of guys on some of these finishes. I suppose the danger with Porte though is that he might not even finish the race, and if he drops out, it'll be a massive blow for their chances. De Marchi, Dennis, Roche and Rosskopf should go ok too on the mountain stages, expect them to be in breaks too, but there could well be stages where Porte comes home near the top and the next BMC man could be 10 minutes back or more.. And the rest of the team won't help in the classification, so you can see how they are such a big price after all. 

And that's it really, Lotto Soudal and the rest are 125/1 and bigger as they don't really have GC men, and you can't see them coming close to winning this. So Movistar then, value or not at 4/5? Value is relative as they say and actually, 8/11 probably is value, they should win this prize quite comfortably I think. Bora will be close, but I think Movistar have a better squad, and EF Drapac are too flaky to trust. Other teams have one or two good GC men but then the quality falls away fast after that for the big GC days when you need your 3rd man finishing close. Carapaz will be close, not sure other teams will have that consistency. So a win bet on Movistar it is, seeing as there's no each way betting available anywhere, and we'll try some matchbets also.  

Recommendation:

5pts on Movistar at 4/5 with PP/Betfair

Astana to beat UAE Emirates - 3pts at 4/6

LottoNL Jumbo to beat EF Cannondale Drapac whatsit - 2pts at 5/6

Katusha to beat QSF - 3pts at 4/6