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Published on Friday, 23 August 2013 12:10

Vuelta Sprinters and KOM Jerseys Preview

The battle for the Red jersey is going to be hard to call this year, I have given my thoughts on that in my race preview. As for the other jerseys, they look equally difficult to call with no clear favourites and surprise names in what should be the 'sprinters' competition!

Points Jersey

It is a pretty clear indication of how few opportunities there are for the sprinters in this year's Vuelta that the first 'real' sprinter, Michael Matthews, is available to back at 20/1 for the Points Jersey prize!

It is 40/1 for Theo Bos and Tyler Farrar, but it's the 'climbers' and GC challengers who dominate the betting given the nature of the parcours this year - unlike in the TdF there are equal points awarded to the summit finishes as sprint finishes. With no fewer than 11 summit finishes it is easy to see why the likes of Rodriguez, Nibali and Valverde are right up there at the top, with the order of favouritism just reversed from the GC with Valverde followed by Rodriguez and Nibali. 

The Contenders and Favourites:

Alejandro Valverde & Joaquin Rodriguez: I have coupled these two together as they are both joint favourites around the 9/4 level (some 5/2 available on Purito). This should be a real ding-dong battle like the GC, but one I think that is most definitely second in priority to the GC. With 25 points available for stage wins, the 11 summit finishes should see these two scrap for a lot of the points on quite a few stages. Possibly if one or the other loses time to put them out of GC contention they might focus on this competition for the rest of the tour, and that could well be Valverde over Purito. We may even see him up contesting some of the sprints and with Purito hopefully figthing for the Red Jersey for us, Valverde can take the Green Jersey.

Vincenzo Nibali - 11/2 with Bet365 and several others. Nibali should be in the mix on most of the mountainous stages and possibly even on the Time Trial but I think the other two contenders above will be picking up bigger point awards along the way so for that reason I am not backing him even at an attractive looking 11/2.. 

Edvald Boassen-Hagen - 16/1 best price: Eddie B may not be the greatest climber or sprinter in the world but he is definitely one that can be in the mix on a lot of the stages, especially the rolling mid-mountain stages. He could possibly be scrapping for some of the top ten spots on the mountain stages and is a likely candidate to be in quite a few breakaways on the rolling stages where he could hoover up some intermediate points if he is in contention for the jersey. Given the lack of top quality sprinters he could well be top 6 in some of the sprint stages too. At 16/1 with Paddy Power he could be a outsider bet each way at 16/1.

King of the Mountains Jersey

Again, like in the Sprinters competition, the KOM jersey competition is dominated by the GC contenders, with only two real exceptions - Amets Txurruka, who is second favourite around 6/1 and last year's winner Simon Clarke around 16/1. This is also a really difficult one to call and may well be one that changes hands quite a few times in the first two weeks before someone takes a grip on it in the final week.

The Contenders and Favourites:

Txurruka and Rodriguez - both available around 5/1, some 7/1 available on Txurruka with Skybet. As Rodriguez will be in the mix hopefully on most of the mountainous stages he may well be a strong candidate for the mountains jersey this year. He sould take at least one stage win and will be top 5 in quite a few of the others most likely so will build up a good haul in the Blue Dots competition. 

I think though that it might be better to side with Txurruka this year. It may even be worth having a little bet on him now and then a little more after a week or so if his price has gone out a little - I think this competition will be won from stage 14 onwards in the last 7 serious days of racing. The stage to Peyragudes has lots of points on offer for a likely breakaway, one I can see Txurruka trying to get in to (and will probably be left go in as he most likely will not be an overall GC contender), and he can build a lead he can defend over the following stages with some canny, point picking jabs.

Valverde - 7/1 - Personally I don't think he will be high enough on the key stages to take maximum points but could be top 5/6 on quite a few stages so will pick up a good number of points, just not enough to win it. He will not be allowed get away on long breaks to take points along the way unless he has a disaster along the lines of the mechanical in the TdF. He should be thereabouts but I think 7/1 is too short for an e/w bet given there could be a surprise candidate sneak in like Clarke last year.

Carlos Betancourt - 11/1 - Betancourt could be a much better each-way bet than the likes of Valverde or Nibali, and has a much more attractive price around 11/1 with Bet365. I can see him nipping up the road on quite a few of the mountain finishes, and will be top 6 on most I would expect - he had something like 3 2nd place finishes at the Giro. He too may well find himself too far behind on GC going in to the final few stages and might be allowed go in chase of KOM points, so an each-way bet on him at 11/1 isn't a bad shout. In fact he could get the bet off to a flyer with a victory on stage 2.