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Published on Friday, 12 July 2013 23:52

Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule to Lyon, 191km

Well so much for it being a boring flat stage eh? The result says Mark Cavendish landed the bets for us with the win, but that doesn't tell half of the story of stage 13!

It all was going well - small breakaway with only a minute or so of a gap.. Cav's price steadily drops during the day and I was tempted to trade out of some around 6/4 after backing him at 3.3 (9/4). Then suddenly the gaps started appearing - and it emerged Kittel was not in the front group. Cue a dive in Cav's price to even money and I decided to lay some back there as I had had a pretty decent bet on Cav in order to trade it. 

But as the stage developed and commentators were getting a bit carried away saying the gap was coming down, I decided to go back in again at 5/4 (tweeted it in a conversation at the time). What happened next was incredible though - Saxo-Tinkoff saw Froome was in a bad position, had a quick chat and put the hammer down in a stunning bit of tactical riding.

What was incredible though was how Cav was the last man to join the echelon - you could see him just bridging as in the background Froome tried and just gave up. He got on (experience from his days with HTC showing, remember this at 40 seconds?) and his price tumbled to 1/2 and easily took the win for OPQS. Brilliant ride by them, first ripping it with Saxo and Belkin to hold the gap and then to send Terpstra away in the last km forcing Bodnar to chase instead of leading out Sagan. Froome couldn't get on like Cav did and looked isolated and vulnerable. Valverde had a mechanical and he too suffered. The front group with Contador and Mollema went for the jugular and took a minute out of Froome and 10 minutes out of Valverde - so much for a boring flat day!

And in all the excitement I forgot about the match bets I recommended - all three won, returning a 5/2 treble, which made the day even better!

Tomorrow is a nightmare stage to call - a long, rolling profile with a number of Cat 3 and 4 climbs to negotiate. A lot of riders will be very tired after today's efforts and of course they have Mont Ventoux to come on Sunday! It is tailor-made for a breakaway you would think and it may even go from the flag drop, or possibly on the first (but uncategorised) climb of La Garde after about 25kms. If not, there is sure to be fireworks just after the intermediate sprint after about 110km as they hit Thizy-Les-Bourgs, which averages 8.2% for 1.7km, followed by the Col du Pilon, 6.3km at 4.4% average. We will probably say goodbye to a lot of the bunch around here, especially the sprinters. 

It's the kind of stage that the likes of Voeckler, Chavanel, Roy and a few others like that will love. Voeckler though I think wil have Sunday's Bastille day stage on his planner, so may not go tomorrow.. he certainly seemed to be saving himself for something today! Chava will be too tired I think after his excellent job today and most of the French thinking of a breakaway stage may wait until Sunday. 

Sagan is favourite for the stage, ranging from 3/1 to 11/2 but I don't think it will be him tomorrow - of course, if it comes to a small bunch finish and he is still there he will probably win, but I can see a break going and sticking and he may not be in it - he had a hard day today too. 

Looking at the other options, and it starts to become a bit of needle in a haystack time - just as well some of their prices are huge, means we can share smallish stakes around for a bit of fun. Lars Bak is being backed around 28/1, I'm guessing he has mentioned this as a target somewhere, seems a bit short otherwise to me - so I am going to have a bit of that action, he is a likely early and long breakaway candidate.

Secondly, I am going to have a go at Fedrigo at 42s - he has been showing his face a bit more lately after a crash earlier in the week and it is the kind of stage he will like. A four-time stage winner, he has been riding well this year with a number of top 10 finishes. FDJ have had nothing in the race so far and with Pinot out of contention the 'nez de Marmade' might just sniff out the right break..

Thirdly, I am going for Michael Albasini at 42s - the Swiss rider has been very quiet in the Tour so far, losing time on many of the stages, but this is his kind of stage and I wouldn't be surprised if he has been saving himself for this one. He won stage 4 of this year's Paris-Nice over very close and very similar territory to tomorrow's stage. He may well get in a break early on, but also if it comes to a reduced sprint he may just take it.

Finally, I am trying to back Sergio Paulinho at 220s on Betfair. Won a similar stage to this in 2010 in 'medium' mountains to Gap. He finished in the group 13 mins down today so wasn't part of the Saxo TTT that worked so hard to make the split. He had an armchair ride I guess in that group, and it just got me thinking did he miss it as this was earmarked for him, or was it just bad placement at the wrong time.. No bookie is pricing him up strangely so trying to get matched on Betfair to see how it goes.

So there it is, will watch and trade in-play of course if things develop without any of my candidates, but small stakes at big prices will give us a bit of fun tomorrow ahead of the big one Sunday!  

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