Details

Published on Wednesday, 06 May 2015 23:10

Giro d'Italia Outsiders 

Could there be an upset from an outsider?

I have covered the Favourites in this other preview already, now I'm going to take a look at the outsiders. Guys who could cause a shock and upset the big favourites.. Guys like Fabio Aru who finished 3rd last year or Ryder Hesjedal who won in 2012 at 50/1.

Moving down through the betting odds, the next favourite after Pozzovivo is man-of-the-week Ilnur Zakarin.

Ilnur Zakarin - Katusha - 33/1 best odds (Corals)

You'd have been forgiven a week ago for saying "WHO?" if I said Zakarin was the 6th favourite to win the first Grand Tour of the year, such was his relative anonymity. Well, the youngish Russian (he's 25) burst on to the scene in no uncertain terms following his shock win in the Tour of Romandie just last weekend. 

Banned for two years for using steroids at the age of 19, Zakarin returned and joined Katusha as a trainee and then spent two years with RusVelo before joining Katusha again. He has mainly flown under the radar, but did start to post some good results last year, including winning the Tour of Azerbaidjan and taking 2nd in the Tour of Slovenia. Apparently he has lost 10kgs and has dropped to just 65kgs, as he 'has been working very hard for two years to reduce my weight'. So now, he looks like Chris Froome at his emaciated worst, you'd be hard pressed to tell them apart based on the picture on the right.. 

His performance in the TDR was pretty incredible though. On the Queen stage, with Thibaut Pinot up the road and Froome riding a hard tempo at the front of a group with Quintana, Bardet, Spilak and Majka, he just rode away from them and held a 13" gap to the line, losing to Pinot by just 7". If that wasn't eye-catching enough, he then goes out the next day and finishes 3rd in the TT, only losing to Martin by 13", depsite having to change his bike near the finish! He would have won the stage only for it! He beat Rohan Dennis by 9" and Chris Froome by 21" and it was enough to put him in the final yellow jersey of the race winner. No wonder Froome had a look of incredulity on his face when he was photographed in the back-stage area.

I'm sorry, but come on. As the MTN Doctor tweeted last week, "it's been a good year so far for ex-dopers". There has been almost universal derision of the win by Zakarin - ex-doper, riding for Katusha, he goes and does that? But just bear in mind that Katusha owner Makarov said at the end of last year that he'll decide after the first part of the season if he'll continue to support Katusha, based on the team's results, especially the results of the Russian riders.. So no pressure or massive incentive then eh. 

He was 200/1 a few weeks ago when some shrewdies decided to have a few quid on him at that price.. He then dropped to 66/1 before Romandie started and by the time he was receiving his trophy last Sunday his price had tumbled to as low as 14/1.. A truly awful and bonkers price, being driven by liabilities at the big prices and fear. Now of course 200/1 and 66/1 were crazy prices in hindsight, but I don’t think those backers in their wildest dreams expected that to happen. So what to do now? You can still back him at 33/1 with Corals, is that worth backing? It’s a hard one to call. Clearly the Katusha boys are in 'special' shape this year, they have been cleaning up. He hadn’t been going badly at all before Romandie though, placing 9th in the Tour of Catalunya. He showed an ability to climb and time trial in Romandie, something he will need to do a lot in Italy though, and he is the former Russian national TT champion too after all. He's going to be an interesting one to watch but I can't bring myself to back him.

Roman Kreuziger - Tinkoff Saxo - Best odds 50/1 (Ladbrokes)

The TS second in command is quite capable of a top ten placing in this race, but I think it's a bit of a long shot to see him climb on to the podium unless something happens to Contador. He has been pretty consistent this year, finishing 12th in Oman, 11th in Strade Bianche, 10th in Tirreno, 14th in Amstel Gold, 11th in FW and 5th in LBL. He finished 5th in the Tour in 2013, and should be one of the last men standing for Contador on a lot of the climbs, which should move him high up the GC. He generally seems to be a 20th-40th place sort of guy in Time Trials, but he did manage to finish a fantastic 4th in the hilly TT over 32kms to Chorge in the TDF last year, losing only 23" to Froome. I think he'll do well, but 5th to 15th for me. 

Leopold Konig - Team Sky - Best odds 50/1 (Ladbrokes)

For Tinkoff Saxo's Kreuziger, see Team Sky's Leo 'The King' Konig. A rider capable of a top ten placing himself, his job here will be to protect Porte and to wear out the support for the likes of Contador, Uran and Aru. The Sky train looks very strong and of course, in putting Contador under a lot of pressure here, it will also tire him out for his battle with Froome in July! Like Kreuziger, Konig should be close to the front at the pointy end of all the big stages and as a result should slip in to the top 10. He could start well too with the TTT, so could get a little head start on some of his rivals for the top 10 spots.

He finished on the podium in Trentino after an excellent TTT and a 4th place finish on the tough summit finish on stage 2. He finished 5th in the long 54km TT in the TDF last year, which helped set him up for a 7th place finish overall. Now he has moved in to the big league with Sky, will he be allowed do his own thing or pull the party line? I think it will be the latter, but with his decent TT and his excellent climbing skills, a top 6 placing isn't out of reach for him. The 2/5 on him to place in the top 10 is a little skinny though! I'll update this when top 6 odds are available if they are of interest.

Ryder Hesjedal - Cannondale Garmin - Best odds 80/1 (various)

A former winner of the race, he has done well in Italy as his fine showing again last year proved. A fantastic 2nd place, almost catching Quintana on the run to Val Martella teed him up for a 9th place finish overall. Winner in 2012, he tweeted a picture this week of his trophy saying it it useful for inspiration, but I think he will need more than inspiration to trouble the podium this year. 15th to 20th for me.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck - Lotto Soudal - Best odds 80/1 (Ladbrokes)

A rider I like a lot, I don't really know why, but I've had fun with him in the past at big odds, such as when he podiumed in the Dauphiné last year at 50/1 each-way. A second tier climber, not a bad time triallist, if it all fell right for him he could have a big Giro. His contract is up this year, and with L-S having dropped him out of the TDF reckoning, this is his big target for the year and he will have a point to prove.

He finished 11th in Tirreno, but didn't do a great TT, but an excuse is probably that the course was too flat for him, it was one for the powerhouses like Cancellara. He stepped it up a lot in the Romandie TT over a hiller course, finishing a very impressive 4th place, beating Dennis, Castroviejo, Uran and Froome. He's going to be left to his own devices when push comes to shove probably, but Monfort, Hansen and Bak should be able to help him out. He could fly under the radar a little and start picking off seconds here and there. 

When he clocked that time in Romandie last Sunday I jumped on Oddschecker and saw he was available at 125/1 for the Giro, I couldn't resist and had a small bet on him. He is as short as 33/1 now but there is 80/1 available with Coral and Ladbrokes, and that is worth a small interest. Recommendation - 0.3pts each-way at 80/1 with Ladbrokes. 

Ion Izaguirre - Movistar - Best odds 150/1 (various)

A rider with a name like mine, I have to back him! No setiously, Izaguirre could be a real dark horse in this race.. Without Nairo Quintana in the race, Movistar come here without a clear leader, but with a number of different riders who could go well, including Anton, Intxausti, Herrada and Visconti. Izaguirre should be the leader for me though, he has shown some really good form this year. 10th in the Algarve, thanks to an excellent 3rd place on stage 4 behind Porte and Kwiatkowski, he had a bad day in the penultimate stage of Paris-Nice but bounced back the next day to take 8th on the Col d'Eze TT.

In the Pais Vasco he was clearly one of the strongest riders and if he didn't have to look after Quintana and play the team game, I think he could have won it. As it was, he finished 3rd on the tough TT up to Aia to secure 3rd place overall. As he was doing that I decided to have a little bet on him at 200/1 with Paddy Power, but being PP, I only got a very small bet on of 0.23pts each-way. He is still available at 150/1 and that could be worth a very small investment also. 4th in Andalucia last year, 8th in Romandie, 2nd in the Tour de Poland, 6th in the Tour of Britain, he is pretty consistent in the shorter stage races, he will need to step it up and prove he can do it over 3 weeks now though. They have a pretty decent team here and should do well in the TTT, should be top 5. He did ok, but not great in the 54km TT in the TDF last year, finishing in 22nd but he looks to be in far better shape this year and I think he is capable of a top 10-15 finish in this TT. Recommendation: 0.2pts each-way at 150/1 with various. 

After that, the chances drop but the prices grow. Benat Intxausti could go well but I think he will be stage hunting, I'm not interested in him at the moment at 200/1. Carlos Betancur is making noises that he is in the best shape he's been in for a while, but then again that wouldn't be hard, the shape he has been in recently is round. I just can't see him competing here at the highest level, and he will struggle badly in the TT. 

Przemyslaw Niemiec could go well but he is getting on now at 35 years of age and he hasn't been in great form of late. Mikel Landa could cause a surprise if Fabio Aru isn't back to full health or struggles for whatever reason. 3rd (TTT), 2nd and 2nd in the first three stages of Trentino set up a 3rd place in the GC overall behind Porte and ahead of Konig. Winner of the brutal finish of the stage to Aia in Pais Vasco, he actually hasn't raced a great deal this year so should come here reasonably fresh. He is a play on how well Aru goes maybe but at 150/1 he could be worth a speculative shot too. Recommendation: 0.1pts each-way at 150/1 with Boylesports 

Damiano Cunego should be capable of a 10th to 20th place finish but nothing better I think. Ivan Basso is here to look after Contador and isn't capable of breaking the top 20 I think. Johan Esteban Chaves could go well at a huge 300/1 but I think he'll be stage hunting also rather than the GC. Damiano Caruso is 500/1 and it's not often he gets a chance to lead the BMC squad. He was going well in Romandie but had a poor TT over 17kms in Lausanne, and that could be his Achilles heel here too. 

I can't really see anyone else getting involved really, so to summarise my overall view on everything...

I think Richie Porte will run Contador really close here and is the better value at 11/4 or 5/2. I just have a feeling that this is his year and he will be able to avoid having the bad day everyone expects him to have. He will crush all his rivals in the TT and could even nick a few stages along the way and steal bonus seconds. Contador should be good enough to finish second and I think Rigo Uran is consistent enough to take the 3rd spot. He should also go very well in the TT and will pull back some of the seconds he will lose to some of the climbers on some of the tougher stages.

Pozzovivo is capable of taking 4th spot and Aru, Zakarin, Konig, Van Den Broeck, Izaguirre, Landa and Kreuziger could be fighting out the remaining top 10 spots.      

All GC Bets:

2pts win on Richie Porte at 11/4 with BetVictor or 5/2 with various

1pt each-way on Rigo Uran at 8/1 with various

0.2pts each-way on Jurgen Van Den Broeck at 80/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts each-way on Ion Izagirre at 150/1 with various

0.1pts each-way on Mikel Landa at 150/1 with Boyles