Details

Published on Thursday, 08 September 2016 21:08

Vuelta Stage 19

Xàbia to Calp

Friday 9th Sept, 37kms 

The first of the two final stages that could decide the top ten of this Vuelta - a 37km time trial. It's almost flat, so it should disadvantage most of the climbers equally, but some will definitely enjoy this stage more than others.

A great sprint by Magnus Cort Nielsen today to take the stage, I can't believe I completely forgot about him after picking him for the last sprint.. He was out of site last time, out of mind this time.. Meersman was pretty rubbish today, he just isn't a flat sprint sprinter... I was right to stay away from Drucker at such short odds, but he did pay his each-way backers by taking 3rd, with Nik Arndt separating them. Jan Bakelants gave us a moment of excitement in the end with his crazy attack, but in the end it was the matchbets which saved the day, I was spot on with Felline not sprinting, he finished in 26th, Bennati easily beating him.. and Kiel Reijnen was their man again today, he got closer this time with a 6th place. 

The matchbet treble also landed to net us 4.3pts profit on the day, but there was no change to any of the other standings with all the points taken by the breakaway. Valverde still leads Quintana by 7pts and I was thinking about the Green Jersey betting - I can't see Quintana wanting to deliberately take the jersey off his team-mate who has worked so hard for him over the last two months. There are no points tomorrow, and Quintana will not take points on Sunday, so it all comes down to whether he takes the stage, and the points on Saturday. 

I just think that Quintana will be happy to just mark and follow on Saturday, he may not want the stage win as winning it would depose Valverde. It may even be that we see Valverde get in the break of the day, or Movistar reel in the break in time for the intermediate sprint with 70kms to go so Valverde can go for the points. I just think that the 5/6 is screaming out to be backed as I think they will try to engineer it that Valverde gets the jersey. We're already on him at 7/2, so if you're nervous about that, leave it, or even hedge with a bet on Quintana, but I'm going in again with 6pts at 5/6 with Bet365. 

It's the only individual time trial of the race, which makes it all the more important as at this late stage in the race, it could decide places all down the top 10. Last year the ITT was over 38.7kms on an almost dead flat course on stage 17, and it was won by over a minute by Tom Dumoulin, crushing the opposition.

Only two of the top ten from that day are here, but Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana pulled off two very impressive time trials to take 3rd and 6th respectively. If Nairo can replicate that ride on Friday then he is probably home and hosed with just one mountain stage to come on Saturday. 

There's not exactly a wealth of top class time triallists here, no Dumoulin, Martin, Cancellara, Kiryienka etc, Froome is head and shoulders above the GC opposition here, but winning the stage is one thing, how far can he win by is the question? Unfortunately, unless he has a motor in his bike again there's no chance of him pulling back the time deficit on Quintana. As for competition for the stage win, then it looks like his old foes Movistar are probably most likely to provide some sort of opposition to him, with double Spanish TT champion Jonathan Castroviejo in the field too.

Jos Van Emden, Michal Kwiatkowski, Johan Le Bon and Tejay Van Garderen have all gone home but there are still some guys here who could cause a surprise or slip in to the top 3 for us at a decent price. 

The Route

^{A route that doesn't need much describing.. They leave Xabia, skirt along the coast, before zig-zagging their way south-west towards Calp. There is a little rise 7kms in for around 4kms as they head inland, then 5kms along a plateau before they descend back to the coast at Moraira. They then hug the coast more or less for all the rest of the stage, but right at the end they sweep past the finish line area in Calp, go out and do a little out-and-back to Calpe and finish in Calp again.} 

There are no major technical challenges, the road gets a little twisty around La Fustera, but shouldn't cause any real problems, the only problem they might face will be the wind coming in off the sea. 

Contenders and Favourites

Chris Froome probably wins this, he's the best time triallist probably in the field, and has been time trialling pretty good this year with a win and a 2nd place in the Tour de France TTs and 3rd place in the Olympic TT.  He has been riding pretty well here too, with only a collapse by his team and a serious miscalculation to let Quintana and Contador go up the road preventing this TT from being his opportunity to pull on the race leader's jersey. He will have to go full gas though to try to put himself in with a shot at maybe being able to attack Quintana on the final climbing stage the next day.

But what if he doesn't? What if the time checks coming back to him tell him that Quintana is on a ride and he isn't gaining sufficient time on him? Will he knock it back a little, save energy and maybe think about trying to at least win the final mountain stage to go out on a high? I wouldn't be surprised. So it's risky I think to back him at those odds of just 6/5. 

Jonathan Castroviejo finished just 4" behind Froome in the Olympic TT, taking 4th place, but led for a while before Cancellara, Froome and Dumoulin pushed him out of the medals. Spanish TT champion in 2015 and 2014, he was just beaten to a hat-trick of titles this year by an in-form Ion Izagirre. He also finished 2nd to team-mate Alex Dowsett in the ITT in the Tour of Poland too this year. After the disappointment of the Olympics he will have had this stage firmly as a target I think and could go well here too. He has been rested for the last 3-4 days, he didn't have to do too much work so he could prepare for this and I think he offers a more attractive bet, although at very low odds too at 11/8. 

Leopold Konig could also pull off a big ride here, he clearly has good legs given his ride in stage 17 up the wall, and he is capable of a decent TT on his day. Tobias Ludviggson is often a very big price for time trials against the best riders, and has been known to ride a good TT in his day too, he's quite a powerful rider. But I haven't been that impressed with him lately, he has been rather disappointing, so I'm not backing him at just 20/1 and in fact think he might be worth taking on in a matchbet with Fabio Felline at a tasty looking 13/8. 

Fabio Felline has not been sprinting in the last two sprint stages. I suggested it was first that he had been in the break all day the day before the last sprint, but today I saw that Trek have said that he is totally focused on this TT as he has been selected for the Italian team for the upcoming European Championships. But in the TT discipline only, not the road race. So expect a big ride from Felline and he may just pip Ludvigsson. 

As for the GC men here and how they'll go, Nairo Quintana pulled off a great TT last year to take 6th and he will be fully motivated to pull off a big ride here too. He won't be winning this stage, but I think he will not do badly at all. This could be the stage though where we see Alberto Contador leapfrog above Esteban Chaves, as Contador should be able to comfortably beat Chaves. It may not be quite as bad as the 59km TT in the Giro last year when Contador finished 3rd and Chaves lost nearly 9 minutes to him, but in the ITT in the Vuelta in 2014 over a similar distance he took 5 minutes off him. Contador could pull off a big ride here too in an effort to make the 3rd spot on the podium safe. He could well finish in the top 6 here, possibly even in the top 3, but is a bit tight at 6/1.

Andrew Talansky could well be a dark horse for this TT, he's got too much of a time loss above him to be able to move on to the podium I think, but he could well move up to 4th as he should comfortably beat Yates who is 1'31" ahead of him and he may even take the 3'37" off of Chaves too if he's on a really good day. That's would be a real pity if our 50/1 shot misses out on a podium spot by one place, but at least the radar was pretty close. And we should take a return from either Contador or Chaves who we've backed also. At 33/1 Talansky might be worth a small bet each-way.

Who else can get involved? Alejandro Vaverde pulled off a big ride here last year, but I'm not sure he'll repeat it this year, he needs to save energy for the points competition battle and he doesn't seem to be as strong as he was last year. Luis Leon Sanchez is riding well and may go close at 14/1, but the same can't be said of Niki Terpstra. Except for seeing his name on the results sheet every day I don't think I've seen him once on TV, he has been completely anonymous.

We might also have another dark horse in Victor Campanaerts of Lotto JumboNL, who is the Belgian ITT champion this year, beating Yves Lampaert, Sep Vanmarcke,, Ben Hermans and Thomas de Gendt. He was also the U23 European TT champion in 2013 and recently finished 5th in the TT in the Tour of Poland, finising just 22" behind Castroviejo and he has beaten Leo Konig in a TT earlier this year in the Volta Valenciana. At 33/1 he's another outsider I'd like to be on.

Finishing just ahead of Campanaerts in the Poland TT was Ben Hermans, and his 4th place in the national champs also shows that the BMC man is capable of a decent TT on his day. He is riding extremely well too in this Vuelta and showed how strong he is when attacking away from the favourites on the final climb on stage 17.

So there are loads of guys who could go well, there are loads of Russians, Katusha and Astana men who could pull off a surprise big ride, but the win will probably only come down to about two or three guys. It could be a real tight duel between Castroviejo and Froome and at the prices, I'd rather be on Castroviejo. 

Startlist

Recommendations -

2pts win on Jonathan Castroviejo at 11/8 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Victor Campanaerts at 33/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Andrew Talansky at 33/1 with various

Matchbets

2pts win on Fabio Felline to beat Tobias Ludvigsson at 13/8 with William Hill

Talansky to beat Hermans, Froome to beat Contador, Castroviejo to beat Konig, Quintana to beat Yates, Luis Leon to beat Stake Laengen and Campanaerts to beat Lampaert - 2pts on the six-fold at 9/2 with Bet365

*Times are local times