Details

Published on Sunday, 21 August 2016 20:24

Vuelta Stage 3

M Dumbría - M.dor de Ézaro

Mon 22nd August, 170kms 

A return to Mirador de Ézaro, last visited in 2012 when they finished on the same, tough climb in stage 12. That day Joaquim Rodriguez outfought Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde in a battle of the Spanish heavyweights.

The 1-2-3 that day shows just how brutal this little climb is, it may be only 1.8kms long, but the first kilometre averages 13.4% and the last 800m averages 15.8%! There are parts as high as 28% on a bend but also reaches 16 to 19 and even 23% in other parts. It is one of the toughest finishes in the Vuelta and one of the toughest finishes in cycling, full stop. The crowds are intense and dense and there's not much room on parts of the climb to pass, even if you were able to. 

Rodriguez was super-impressive last time up here though as you can see in the video below, making the first move early on the climb and only Alberto Contador could come with him. They quickly passed the guys that were ahead on the climb and worked together well through the tough 20% sections, as behind Valverde, Roche, Froome and others struggled to reel them in. Purito's acceleration in the last 200m was aweseome though, kicking away from Bertie and winning it well. 

We should see a similar battle on this stage you would think and it should be for the red jersey, I can't see Pete Kennaugh staying with the best climbers here.   

Another good day today with Meersman doing the business, Etixx did exactly as I expected them to do and bossed a messy sprint, showing all their skill and experience. Meersman was delivered briliantly by some seriously cool riding by two Zdenek Stybar and Yves Lampaert, and he did the rest, winning by a bike length. I hope none of you took the ridiculous prices for Arndt and Bonifazio, they were not to be trusted and didn't even make the podium. Cort Neilsen came close, but couldn't get to Meersman and the surprise finisher was Schwarzmann who finished a superb 2nd, repaying his team-mates who worked very hard over the closing kilometres.

Meanwhile Phil Gil gave us a little scare for a while attacking with 38kms to go, it got me a little worried about our bet though in general of him not winning a stage, he looks in better shape than I expected! I might have to cover a tiny bet on him on some stages where he could go close. And to show just how poor quality these sprinters are, Michal Kwiatkowski finished 4th in the sprint, which was enough to take the Red Jersey off his team-mates shoulders. 

The Route

It's pretty flat for 110kms before the reach the Alto de Lestaio, a Cat 3 climb that rises to 450m in 8kms, before they rumble along a plateau for the best part of 15kms, then descend back down to sea level again before quickly starting on to the Alto Das Paxareiras. This Cat 2 climb is steeper at 5.4% over 9.4kms, and it could be that we see a selection here where some of the stronger teams look to break things up ahead of the final climb, to thin out the peloton that's going to be tackling the final ascent. 

There's roughly 10kms of flat roads along the lakeside, and there is one other thing to remember with racing in this part of the world is that we are pretty close to the west Atlantic coast and it can be very windy around here too. If some teams do split things on the penultimate climb it could be very hard to get back on. In fact the first 65kms are spent hugging the coast, so if teams did want to split it early on, it could be possible. It looks like it's going to be a very mild but warm day though, with temperatures in the high 20s and winds of only 4-6mph.

With 1.8kms to go they start on the ascent to the Mirador de Ezaro Viewpoint, and it starts hard at 14% in the first 100m, and rises to the high 20s in the last 200m of the first kilometre and stays hard and steep all the way to the line with gradients of 16,17 and 19%. 

Contenders and Favourites

This final climb starts brutally hard right from the bottom - last time up the race was blown apart inside the first 200m, and as the road narrows it gets harder and harder to pass anyone, so positioning is vital right from the very bottom of the climb. A good place to start would be the 1-2-3 from the last time up here in 2012. Well the 2-3 anyway as Joaquim Rodriguez isn't here this year. Rodriguez and Contador were really close to the front from the bottom of the climb and they watched as Igor Anton tried to escape away and bridge up to Asterloza.. but as he died with about 800m to go, Rodriguez attacked and shot past him, with Contador in tow.

Valverde was behind them. but was unable to go with them.. It was a brilliantly timed attack from Purito, as the road narrowed almost immediately, then they met Meyer, Asterloza and Anton and it was hard for the chasers to jump across quickly on the crowded road. As the road hit 23%, Contador and Purito stretched their lead, and got a nice gap that the chasers were unable to bridge. With no Rodriguez this year (and maybe he's not capable of that sort of attack any more anyway) who will take up the baton and attack this year? Alberto Contador might, he needs to pull back time after losing 52" today.. He looked in good form in Burgos, and we know he goes well here, so he has to be considered a likely winner of today's stage. I'm not sure he has the power of 2012 any more, 

This sort of finish should also suit Johan Esteban Chaves very well as we saw in last year's race, he was on it very early on on stage 2 last year with the ascension to Caminito del Ray, he danced away with Dumouiln and was just too strong at the finish. He followed that up with another superb attack on stage 6 when he took the red jersey. He could well take the red jersey today after the excellent TTT saw him lose only 6" to Sky.

What about Alejandro Valverde himself? Can he go better than the last time up here? He is sure to be at the front again like last time around, but I think he will struggle to win this stage. Firstly, he will probably be on Quintana babysitting duties and may well do a lot of the pulling at the bottom of the hill in the first 500m to help blow the race apart and thin it out. Secondly, he didn't have the explosive kick to go with them in 2012, I doubt he has improved as he has aged by four years - I think he's a terrible favourite at just 9/4. 

And Nairo Quintana? What can he do on this finish? Well last time up here he finished 37th, losing 1'10" to Contador, a pretty worrying result.. But that was 4 years ago, it was a very different Quintana to what we have today, but is he capable of exploding up this climb? I'm not sure.  

Who else can get involved? Well last time up here Robert Gesink finished 4th, beating Froome by 3" - his power and wirey frame are suited to this sort of finish, he's got a lot of power for such a light body.. He hasn't been in great form this year though, with only one top 10 finish in the whole year, and his 15th on the Mur de Huy is a good marker I think of where he might finish here. Steven Kruijswijk is a very similar sort of rider to Gesink in terms of physique and power, and in fact as Gesink's career has started to fade, Kruijswijk's star is rising.  He can punch hard on steep finishes, we saw that in the Giro this year and in the Giro last year, such as on the steep finish to Arpica in 2015 when he beat Contador to 2nd place behind Landa. He could be invovled and the 66/1 with PP is worth a shot.

Daniel Moreno finishes 6th last time up here, he was going well, but of course, with Purito up the road he was not going to be chasing. He is excellent on steep finishes like this and it may be that he is let off the leash if Valverde is looking after Nairo and Nairo's feeling ok.. He may even try early on the climb while some of the favourites look at each other, he could get a jump and they may not catch him.  I think I'd rather be on him than either of his two team-mates.

Chris Froome has a chance, he came 5th here last time, but I think that he might struggle to go with the really fast guys again this time. He looked like he was struggling a little bit towards the end of the TTT, or maybe he was waiting for Lopez, but he was gesticulating a lot and swinging off the back of the lineout. I think it will be too steep for the likes of Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, Brambilla and Stybar, but Igor Anton might give it a go again, he attacked early last year, was swallowed up by Contador and Purito but held on for 7th.

It's a really hard finish to an interesting stage - we could even get late attacks over the Cat 2 climb with just 20kms to go shake things up, a good break of 5 or 6 strong riders could get away and stay away. But I think it will come down to a battle among the GC men and Esteban Chaves looks the one for me for tomorrow, the 7/2 with Bet365 is ok, he's only 2/1 with PP, closer to what I was expecting. Dani Moreno could go close and Contador, Dani Moreno isn't great value but the 10/1 with Ladbrokes stands out as worth backing.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Esteban Chaves at 3/1 with William Hill or Ladbrokes (the 7/2 with Bet365 is now gone, 3/1 best price)

0.5pts each-way on Daniel Moreno at 10/1 with Ladbrokes 

Matchbets:

Chaves to beat Valverde - 2pts at 11/10 with Bet365

Contador to beat Lopez, Atapuma to beat Bennett, Kruijswijk to beat Talansky, Gesink to beat Rolland - 1pt at 3.75/1

Daniel Moreno to beat Simon Yates - 2pts at 5/6 with PP

Goncalves to beat Gilbert - 3.5pts at 4/7 with PP

Kruijswijk to beat Talansky - 2pts at 4/6 with Paddy Power