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- Published on Friday, 17 April 2015 23:03
Amstel Gold Preview
Maastricht to Valkenberg
Sunday 19th April, 258kms
The 50th running of the Amstel Gold Race starts in Maastricht in the Kimburg region of the Netherlands on Sunday morning. There's a fantastic line-up looking to kick-start their Ardennes campaign in style, with Philippe Gilbert looking for back-to-back victories and his fourth victory in total in the race.
This is a reasonably new race on the Classics calendar, first run in only 1966, but it is now the most important race in the Netherlands in the whole year. The history of how the race came about is just an amazing story, almost comical - this is from Wikipedia:
"The first race, on April 30, 1966, was organised by two Dutch sports promoters, Ton Vissers and Herman Krott, who together ran a company called Inter Sport.
Vissers was a house decorator and hockey player from Rotterdam whose break in cycling came in 1963 when a friend asked him to manage a minor team in the Tour of Holland. Those who were there say he was as hopeless as his riders. Officials banished him after he did a U-turn and drove back towards the oncoming race after hearing that one of his riders had punctured. Three years later, in 1966, he became manager of the Willem II professional team that at one time included the classics winner, Rik van Looy of Belgium.
Krott's background in cycling was scarcely deeper. He ran a car-parts dealership called HeKro and, because he admired the Dutch rider Peter Post, worked as his personal assistant. He had also worked as a salesman for Amstel. Together, Krott and Vissers organised small races across the Netherlands. Krott also used his contacts at Amstel to start an Amstel professional team and then the sponsorship to run an international professional race bigger than the round-the-houses events Inter Sport had been promoting until then.
Things started going wrong from the beginning. Krott and Vissers had announced the start, the finish and the distance without taking into account the many rivers and the zigzags needed to cross them. The course would be far longer than 280 km. Further plans were made to start in Utrecht, then in Rotterdam. The finish was moved from Maastricht to the unknown village of Meerssen. Less than three weeks before the start, the organisers realised they had not obtained permission to cross the Moerdijk bridge, the only way out of Rotterdam to the south. The route had again to be redrawn and the start moved to Breda in the south.
The problems had not ended. Whatever the police thought of the constant changes they were asked to approve, they now had bigger concerns. The Provos, militant hippies, had declared Holland a state of anarchy. At the other end of the social scale, Dutchmen were also protesting against the marriage of the queen's daughter, Beatrix, to a German, Claus von Amsberg. The police feared that a race organised on the royal family's big day would bring uprisings and possibly attacks.
On April 26, Vissers and Krott called off their race. But still there was a twist. A press conference to break the news had just started when the Dutch roads ministry in The Hague called to say the race could be run after all — provided it was never again scheduled for Koninginnedag"
The modern day race has firmly established itself now though as one of the biggest spring races, kicking off the Ardennes series of races. It's a tough course littered with 33 climbs (4,000 metres of climbing in all, who said Holland was flat?!) that suits the puncheur types more than outright climbers and sprinters as a look at recent winners shows.
Gilbert won the Amstel Gold Race last year with a powerhouse attack at the bottom of the Cauberg, attacking away from Simon Gerrans, Valverde and Kwiatkowski. He held it all the way to the line with indecision and fatigue holding the chasers back. Jelle Vanendert attacked out of the chasing group to take a commendable second.
Romain Kreuziger won in 2013 after an audacious attack from the remnants of the break he was in, just as the peloton were about to make the catch with 7km to go. Gilbert attacked on the Cauberg with Gerrans and Valverde in pursuit, but even though he rode his legs off they were swamped on the line and he ended up in 5th place. Valverde just hung on for 2nd from Gerrans.
Enrico Gasparotto was a surprise winner in 2012, outsprinting Vanendert and Sagan after Gilbert had again lit it up on the Cauberg but faded towards the finish (sounds familiar...). It denied Gilbert a hat-trick of wins as he had won the previous two editions, but he made amends for that last year.
The Route
The race starts in Maastricht and heads north crossing the river Maas and a little further down the road, at Borgharenweg, the 251.4km race officially begins. After just 9kms they hit the first climb of the Sligerberg but things start to get serious after 50kms when they hit the Sibbergrubbe (2.1kms at 3.6% avg) as it is followed just 5kms later by the first passage of the Cauberg, which is tackled a total of 4 times in all during the day.
The Cauberg plays a huge part in deciding the winner as its 800m distance averages 6.5% but hits a max of 12.8%. It's an iconic climb for the sheer numbers of Dutch and Belgian fans that throng the hill screaming on their heroes. It has recently also gained fame as the finishing hill where Gilbert won his world championship in 2012.
Once over the Cauberg they start out on the circuit and the hills come thick and fast - 16 hills over the next 110kms before they go back over the Cauberg for a second time. They hit the Wolfsberg, Loorberg, Schweibergerweg, Camerig, Drielandenpunt, Gemmenic, Vijlenerbos and Eperheide one after the other. The St. Remigiusstraat: Huls after 145.2km is one of the toughest - 900m at an average of 7.8% with a max of 10.7%.
Once more over the Cauberg and its out on to a second, shorter circuit. After the Geulhemmerberg (1,200 metres, 4.6%) comes the Bemelerberg (900 metres, 4.5%), then the Loorberg for the 2nd time (1500 metres, 5.3%) and the Gulpenerberg (600 metres, 5.7%).
Next up is the Eyserbosweg (900 metres, 9.3% with a max of 17%) which is regarded as the toughest climb of the day. Then the Fromberg (1,600 metres, 3.6%) and another tough one in the Keutenberg (1,200 metres, 5.9% hits a max of 22%!) and back over the Cauberg again.
The final circuit is shorter again but the pace will be really high at this stage. They tackle the Geulhemmerberg and the Bemelerberg again before the final ascent of the Cauberg. Like last year though the finish is not at the top of the Cauberg like it used to be, but instead is 1.8 kilometres after the top. This can allow the front of the race to come back together a little if the puncheurs have stretched things out from the bottom, but there may only be 10-15 max come to the line together, possibly only 5-10. Or if PhilGil repeats last year's effort, just one.
Route Map
Profile
The Hills of Amstel Gold
Contenders and Favourites
You need to be able to climb for this race, but you don't need to be a pure climber. You need luck too - lots of narrow, twisty roads and street furniture sees plenty of nasty crashes - just ask Joaquin Rodriguez who was taken out of the race early on last year. This race sees plenty of surprise winners, with the like of Kreuziger last year, Gasparotto in '12, Ivanov in '09 and Schumacher in '07 in recent years.
It's a 'home' race for Lotto-Jumbo NL, but also for the many Dutch riders in the peloton who don't get many opportunities like the race to perform in front of their fans. It's the biggest race of the year for the Dutch fans and there are many of their idols in contention this year. There are many, many other candidates who could win on Sunday though, which doesn't make it easy to pick the winner!
Philippe Gilbert - I didn't really fancy him for the Brabantse Pijl on Wednesday, I thought Michael Matthews would beat him in a sprint, and he duly did, comfortably. Gilbert was quite aggressive in the race though, attacking the peloton and pushing hard at the front, even though Hermans was still up the road. What an amazing ride by Hermans though, to hold of that chasing pack and take a 400/1 win.. very annoying for my bet though as Matthews was clearly the best rider in the race and won the sprint by about three bike-lengths.
Gilbert may have held back a little with Hermans up the road in the last kilometre, but there will be no such restraint on Sunday in AGR. Twice a winner of this race in '10 and '11, he is very much at home on this circuit - it was of course where he won the World Championships brilliantly in 2012. He has a superb team with him with GVA, Hermans, Burghardt, Caruso and Sanchez, all of whom are going to be needed to control things on the climbs, like Burghardt in 2013 when they hit the Cauberg for the penultimate time.
Last year, Samu Sanchez did a brilliant sacrificial attack at the bottom of the Cauberg, stretching everyone out and putting them on the limit, only for Gilbert to sneakily accelerate up the left hand side of the road, almost unnoticed as they watched Sanchez. He is bound to be involved at the bottom of the Cauberg last time up, can he sprint away from the rest again like last year and solo to the line? He is capable of it, but also, if he goes to the line with a small bunch he is capable of a good result from the sprint.
The second favourite is Alejandro Valverde who is best price 6/1 with Skybet, but is as short as 4/1. He has had a pretty decent start to the season by anyone's standards, but not as good as the start he had made this time last season. Three stage wins in the Volta a Catalunya still wasn't enough for him to win the GC overall, as he had lost time on stage 3 to overall winner Richie Porte after crashing. He has several other decent results this year and there's no doubting his quality in a race like this, he has the perfect set of skills for this type of course.
4th last year, winner of the sprint for 2nd behind Kreuziger in 2013, 4th in 2008, 6th in 2007, he has had good results whether they finished on the Cauberg or the longer finish and should be top 6 again this Sunday. He has a pretty decent team with him, with Sutherland, Gorka Izagirre, Visconti, Gadret and Herrada, but he doesn't need it at the finish. He will be at the front of the race as they hit the Cauberg and should be able to mark most of the attacks. He has one of the best sprints in a select group so should be capable of a big result.
The top three in the betting are almost the exact same as last year, the only change is Michael Matthews has jumped up to third favourite above Michal Kwiatkowski after his impressive finish in de Brabantse Pijl, where he should have won the race, easily disposing of Gilbert and the rest. I really fancied him for the race on Wednesday and I really fancy him to win this race too. He was 25/1 for AGR just over a week ago but following a stage win and a 2nd place in Pais Vasco he dropped to around 16/1 but came in for a lot of support at the start of this week and shortened up to around 12/1 before Brabantse Pijl. Since then his price has halved with some to as short as 7/2 with William Hill, but is still available at 7/1 with quite a few. I took some 9/1 each-way on Wednesday evening with Boyles who are paying 4 places.
I think he will be right there at the bottom of the Cauberg with the leaders, but like Gerrans last year he might just struggle a little to go with the punchier attackers like Gilbert, but if he can get together with a small bunch of chasers, they might come to the line for a sprint finish where he would be my favourite for the win. Even if he is not able to reel in a leader or two, he could well still finish in the first four to give us a small return.
Michal Kwiatkowski is now 4th favourite generally, but depending on which bookie you look at is the same price in places as the two above him around 6/1. 5th last year, he was right there with Valverde and Gerrans when Gilbert attacked but couldn't go with him. 4th in 2013, just pipped by Gerrans and Valverde in the sprint, he was part of the 15 man group that got away up the Cauberg and fought out the finish. He is sure to be there or thereabouts again this Sunday.
Joaquim Rodriguez ranges from 9/1 to 18/1 and it sort of reflects the uncertainty with how he could go here. His record in this race reads DNF, DNF, 24th, 2nd, DNF, 48th, 8th, 11th over the last 8 years so it's hard to trust him to produce a big result on Sunday, Wednesday's Fleche-Wallone probably suits him better. He is in great form though, two stage wins and a brilliant 2nd in the hilly TT in Ain won him the overall in Pais Vasco last week. This was after he went away for a while to do some 'altitude training' after Tirreno-Adriatico, where he took two second places, but up until then he had a pretty poor start to the season. I'm going to leave him alone on Sunday.
Daniel Martin has been in hiding for most of the season so far, he has only raced 17 days and 2,775kms so far this year but he showed in Catalunya that he is in good form with two great performances on stage 3 and 4 where he placed 3rd and 4th, and finished 10th overall, despite his lack of racing. He should be very comfortable on the climbs throughout the day and should be delivered to the front by a pretty strong looking Garmin-Cannondale squad as they hit the Cauberg. He is capable of kicking things off at the bottom, of following the likes of Gilbert and sitting on wheels and attacking again to try to get away in the last kilometre, or even has the possibility of doing well in a sprint in a little group, as long as Matthews isn't in there!
I think that he has a good chance, but Fleche-Wallone on Wednesday should be much more up his street, and of course he will be seeking revenge in Liege-Bastogne-Liege on Sunday week. The 28/1 with Bet365 is attractive but I also think that he has a big chance of winning Wednesday and next Sunday in LBL also, we'll see how he goes in AGR first. He has said this is his favourite week of the year with his favourite races and I'm sure he'll be keen to add to his two monument wins.
Simon Gerrans should be up there as one of the favourites normally, but with him just coming back from a broken elbow, he probably isn't in the sort of shape he needs to be in to win against this quality field. It could be that we see him lead Matthews in to the bottom of the Cauberg and drag him along for as far as he can before letting him to his own devices. He's one to watch though to see if his form is coming back in time to defend his LBL title.
I was told by a really good source a few weeks back that Tim Wellens was targeting Amstel Gold as his next big goal, he was 80/1 at the time so I had a half a point each-way. He's half that price now at 40/1 and as low as 30/1 after a good showing in Paris-Nice, where he placed 9th in the Col d'Eze and 10th overall and even more so in the the last road stage of Pais Vasco. He was away in the break of the day and was very strong - together with Landa, Danielson and Taaramae they managed to hold off the group of favourites and eventually took 2nd place 3" behind Landa. He is part of a strong Lotto-Soudal that includes last year's runner-up Jelle Vanendert, Tony Gallopin, Pim Ligthart, Jurgen Roelandts and Tosh Van der Sande.
It's possible that he could attack from quite a way out again, he is not punchy enough to get away on the Cauberg last time around. It may be that he tries a Kreuziger and attacks on the penultimate ascent of the Cauberg. They have several cards to play Lotto and it may be that someone like Roelandts or Dennis Vanendert is up the road already from an earlier break and Wellens could try to bridge and press on. Then if they're reeled in, Jelle and Gallopin can try in the closing stages. I think we could see a lot of the Lotto boys at the front Sunday.
Roman Kreuziger may have two years ago, but I can't see it happening again, Michael Valgren could be Saxo's best chance of success Sunday. Back-up riders to their team-leaders could also feature for some teams depending on how the race turns out - Dani Moreno could be a big danger on this finish, if Purito crashes out again or just isn't feeling good at the finish, Moreno could take over. He seems to have lost the killer instinct though, he disappoints regularly.
Lampre have two possibe challengers in Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi. Costa has been quietly and steadily building form with some decent results including 3rd in that hard stage to Nice in Paris-Nice and 3rd on the final TT up Col d'Eze, and a very good 8th place in the TT up the wall in Aia last weekend. He could be capable of attacking on the Cauberg, or just marking the move and trying to attack again in he run-in on the flatter parts. Ulissi is only just back from his drugs ban and has only ridden Pais Vasco since he came back. Neither of them have a great record in this race so I'm going to leave them.
Enrico Gasparotto won in 2012 and came 3rd in 2010, he always seem to have his best weeks of the year around the time of the Ardennes classics. He's now with Wanty-Groupe Gobert and they'll be agressive as usual. It's a big ask to see him win Sunday, and the 28/1 on him is ridiculously short. The 66/1 is a bit more like it, but still I think I'll leave him too. Astana have a strong squad here with Vincenzo Nibali, Andrey Grivko who was involved in the late breaks that Kreuziger escaped from in 2013, Boom, Fuglsang, Rosa, LL Sanchez and Dutch man Lieuwe Westra. With those guys in the squad they are sure to be agressive and prominent, we're sure to see almost all of them give it a go at some point.
Outsiders at big prices - Tom Dumoulin is a local boy and this is possibly the biggest race of his year. He could be one for the longish break away, maybe going with 40-50kms to go, and depending on the mix of the break (a Garmin rider, Lotto rider etc) they might have a chance of staying away. He would have to go solo though on the last lap to win possibly as he wouldn't be the best sprinter. He was 100/1 last year and I tipped him up, he couldn't go with the final attacks as you'd expect, he's not the punchy type. But he did show with his amazing TT victory in Pais Vasco that his climbing has improved, and he is in great condition at the moment. the 33/1 was a bit shorter than I expected, I thought he'd be around 50/1, but in fact looking at his odds a week ago, he was as big as 80/1. Still, 33/1 is nearly double Will Hill's paltry 17/1.
Maciej Paterski has been riding brilliantly lately, with some very aggressive attacking paying dividends in recent races. A 1st and a 3rd from long breakaways in Catalunya were followed by a 2nd place in the Volta Limburg and 9th place in Brabantse Pijl on Wednesday. He's a huge looking 250/1, but I believe some of the sharper eyes out there managed to get 500/1 on him! I've had a small bet on him, has to be small as PP have limited me to just 0.32pts each-way now. He could give us the long range, all-day excitement if he gets in the break of the day.
Fabio Felline rode well again on Wednesday but let his supporters down by not being able to finish off the race, only coming 7th in the sprint, beaten by guys like Rebellin and Haas.. He has been in great form of late, but I think we could see a similar result on Sunday when he tries to mix it with the big boys again, I think he'll not be involved in the first six, even the 60/1 with Betfair doesn't appeal to me.
Nordhaug, Leukemans, Kolobnev, Mollema, Kiserlovski, Kelderman, Alaphilippe, Simon Yates, Rebellin, Albasini, Poels, Caruso, Henao and Van Avermaet - all could go well and could be involved in the closing stages at big prices. I think though that we'll get the same sort of situation as last year where the attacks come at the bottom of the Cauberg, maybe Samu Sanchez faking it out for Gilbert to attack on the sly again.
But I think the others will try to mark him closer this year and we could see a regrouping of 6-10 riders in the last kilometre. A leaner, fitter Bling matthews will take all the beating though I think, only Valverde and Kwiatkowski could trouble him in the final sprint if he can get there, and I think based on how strong he looked in Brabanste Pijl, he will. Tim Wellens and the Mac Dadski could give us something to cheer about all day. Valverde is sure to be challenging in the top 3 again though, might be worth a saver on him at 5/4 to finish in he top 3 just in case Matthews doesn't make it with the escapees on the Cauberg.
Recommendations:
Michael Matthews - 1pt each-way at 9/1 with Boylesports (take the 7/1 with Skybet)
Tim Wellens - 0.5pts each-way at 80/1 with PP
Maciej Paterski - 0.32pts each-way at 2501/1 with PP
2pts on Alejandro Valverde to finish in the top 3 at 5/4 with 888Sports.
Matchbets:
Michael Valgren to beat Alaphilippe - 2pts at 11/10
Gasparotto to beat Felline - 1.2pts at 5/6
Rui Costa to beat Roman Kreuziger (4/6) and TomDum to beat Hesjedal (1/3) - 2pts on the double at 5/4, all with PP
