Details

Published on Tuesday, 24 March 2015 21:13

Dwars door Vlaanderen 

Wednesday 25th March 2015, 200kms

Niki Terpstra returns to try to win the Dwars door Vlaanderen for the third time in four years after a superb solo victory last year and in 2012. Last year he won by 17" from a very annoyed Tyler Farrar, annoyed by the fact that he should have won had they not let Tersptra get away. In 2014 he won by an even bigger margin, 47" over Chavanel and de Kort. In between Oscar Gatto won the sprint from the break, but Tersptra led the second group home in 11th place.   

So safe to say, Terpstra loves this race and should be a strong favourite to win the race again this year. Especially as he needs to be hitting top form with the Ronde Van Vlaanderen in just 11 days. The course starts in Roeselare but the main action of the day takes place down in Tour of Flanders country around Oudenaarde and Ronse, with the famous Hellingen of the Ronde that include the Nokerberg, Paterberg, Oude-Kwaremont, Taaienberg and the Valkenberg. 

The Kwaremont is crossed with just 38kms to go and generally makes a significant selection for the business end of the race. Just 3kms later it's the Paterberg, a shorter climb but steeper than the Kwaremont. The final Hellingen, the Nokerberg comes with just 8kms to go and it offers one last opportunity to get away if there is still a small group left together.  

Contenders

There is no question but Niki Terpstra deserves to be the favourite, and in fact I thought he would be shorter - He is 7/2 best price with a few bookies, as short as 5/2 but I thought he might be around 2/1. I think the main reason that he isn't shorter is the second favourite is his team-mate Michal Kwiatkowski, who is as short as 7/1. The question is, will Kwiatkowski be going for it, or working for Terpstra? I think he won't be going for it himself, unless something happens to Terpstra.. This is the only cobbled race Kwiatkowski is contesting in the coming weeks, he is targeting the Ardennes Classics instead. 

If he is not going to be riding the Ronde or Paris Roubaix, what's the point in riding this race you have to wonder? I think it could be a promise from Etixx to the organisers to bring the World Champion here or something like that.. Ok, he is a brilliant rider and could well play a big part in this race, but I think he is here to show his face and help out Terpstra. He could be here to rip things up heading in to the latter parts of the race, especially say up the Oude Kwaremontm as it is not the hardest cobbled section, but is quite long. Terpstra can then rip it up on the Paterberg like last year when he raced away from the pack and went in pursuit of the remnants of the earlier break.. he caught them and just went straight past them. 

Tepstra is in great condition at the moment, he was the power behind the demolition job that Etixx-QS did in the Ronde Van Zeeland last Saturday, where they took the 1-2-3-4 in the race and gifted the win to Iljo Keisse. He won the Tour of Qatar on the back of an excellent time trial, and that time trialling power will be needed on the run in to Waregem as he will face a head-wind. Second in the Omloop to Ian Stannard and 13th in Le Samyn, I think that he has a superb chance of winning tomorrow and the 7/2 has to be taken. 

After that there are plenty who could get involved depending on the race is run - we could see a reduced bunch sprint too, depending on how hard the race is. I can't see the likes of Cavendish being there at the finish but sprinters like Tyler Farrar could be there. Last year Farrar won the bunch sprint and thumped his handlebars as he crossed the finish line as he knew it was a brilliant opportunity to win a semi-classic. He loves it on the cobbles and roads around Flanders and with sprinters who can handle the Hellingen thin on the ground, Farrar has a good chance of a top 3 finish again at a big 40/1 with Paddy Power. 

Jempy Drucker rode well in KBK to finish 6th in the sprint behind Cav and Kristoff, and in the Driedaagse, taking a 4th and 7th place and 7th overall. He finished 4th in this last year (or 3rd in the sprint) and could well be involved in the sprint for places again. He will be leading BMC with Greg Van Avermaet waiting until the weekend so should have the services of the likes of Marcus Burghardt and Rohan Dennis. At 25/1 he might be worth a small each-way investment. 

Jens Keukeleire could go well here, he has finished 7th, 9th and 10th in the race in the past. Matti Breschel will be desperate to make a point after the bollicking he got for how he rode the finish at Milan San Remo, but I'm not sure he can make a top 3 placing here. In the absence of Fabian Cancellara, Stijn Devolder can take advantage of being team leader for a race in a part of the world he does well in - twice winner of the Tour of Flanders in '08 and '09, he certainly knows his Paterberg from his Kwaremont. He is 33/1 across the board more or less and that's worth a small bet too. I had him backed last year for the Tour of Flanders at 150/1 I think it was, he crashed twice.. He is 150/1 again this year with PP, I had to have a little bet on that too again, just in case he puts in a big ride tomorrow. They let me have 0.2pts each way at 150/1! 

Oscar Gatto is a former winner of this race and could go well, as could Hofland, Van Asbroeck, Lampaert and Theuns, but I think they will all be chasing shadows when Niki steps on the gas on the Paterberg and leaves them behind. Drucker, Devolder could give chase and Farrar could place in the top 3 in the bunch sprint, if Tersptra hasn't gone for some reason, he might even win the race. Now that would be a nice surprise. 

I'm also going to have a 1pt double on Terpstra and Valverde in Catalunya, I think they both have strong chances, the double pays 11.38/1.

Recommendations:

2pts win on Niki Terpstra at 7/2 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Tyler Farrar at 40/1 with PP

0.3pts each-way on Jempy Drucker at 25/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Stijn Devolder at 33/1 with various

Match Bets

Devolder to beat Wallays - 1.6pts at 11/8

Tour of Flanders - 0.2pts each-way on Stijn Devolder at 150/1 with PP 

Terpstra and Valverde win double - 1pt at 11.38/1 with Bet365