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- Published on Tuesday, 10 March 2015 23:03
Tirreno-Adriatico 2015
Wednesday March 11th to Tuesday March 17th
The organisers of Tirreno-Adriatico must have been pinching themselves with the line-up of superstars that were taking part this year. Tour de France winner Vincenzo Nibali, Vuelta winner and last year's T-A winner Alberto Contador, Giro d'Italia winner Nairo Quintana and recent Vuelta a Andalucia winner Chris Froome are all here for an early season battle.
Well, that was the situation until Monday morning when Chris Froome announced on Twitter that he had a chest infection and he wasn't going to be taking part in the race. It caused consternation of course, with the sceptics saying we've heard this sort of story before from Sky, but the fact of the matter is that with Froome out the race loses a major attraction. Not only does it mean that the race is thrown up in the air, but so was a lot of the preview I had written as it focused on the potential battle between them etc. But after taking in the news for a few minutes I jumped on to the bookies to see what price Contador was for the race, but only Bet365 had a market open that early. Alberto Contador was available still at 11/8 even though Froome was out, so I jumped on that with 3 points of a bet. There may be a rule 4, there may not, I just took it, we'll see what happens after!
Not only that, but like in Paris Nice last year when their no.1 rider, Richie Porte pulled out with illness, the back-up GC riders in Team Sky were available at huge prices. Leopold Konig was 125/1 as was Mikel Nieve. I got a half a point each-way on Konig but by the time I backed Nieve he was already 80/1.. They are both half those prices now though.
This is the 50th running of T-A and it was looking like it should be a brilliant race, hopefully it will still be despite Froome's absence. The course is varied and challenging and the talent speaks for itself. The course generally heads in a south-westerly direction but stage 5 takes them south west to Terminillo and Stage 6 takes them back north again to the Adriatic Coast. It starts with a prologue (that replaces the scheduled Team Time Trial) and ends with a 10km time trial in San Benedetto Del Tronto. Along the way there are stages for the sprinters, the puncheurs and the mountain goats so there is something for everyone.
The 2014 edition was won by Alberto Contador when he took control on stage 5 to Guardiagrele, dancing away from Quintana and chasing down the breakaway, before going on to win a fantastic stage from Simon Geschke. The last time three of the big four met here in 2013 it was Vincenzo Nibali who came out on top, beating Froome by 23" and Froome by 52"
Of course Froome and Contador have already done battle this season in the Ruta del Sol, where they traded blows on consecutive stages and only 2" separated them at the finish. They were clearly on a different planet to everyone else in Andalucia, first Contador destroying the field with Froome not far behind on stage 3 and vice-versa on stage 4 when Froome pulled off a miracle recovery to retake the lead despite being 27" back.
Nibali has had an altogether different start to the year, a pretty poor showing in Dubai was followed by another anonymous performance in Oman as he just eased himself in to the year. He also took part in the Strade Bianche on Saturday but was way off the pace again, getting dropped by the chasing pack and eventually coming home more than 7 minutes down. He was probably just looking after himself given the dangerous roads once he had got 150km of good racing in to the legs, but his form doesn't exactly fill you with confidence going in to this test.
Nairo Quintana opened his season with the Tour de San Luis - and despite taking two fourth places and a 7th place and finishing 3rd overall he was well off the pace of the winner Daniel Diaz. This was followed by a crash in the Colombian road nationals and he hasn't raced since. Hard to know how he'll go here, but last year he had no answer for Contador when he stepped on the gas.
But it's not just the big four here, we also have Domenico Pozzovivo, Carlos Betancur, Thibaut Pinot, Dan Martin, Joaquim Rodriguez, Adam Yates and Julian Arredondo to name a few of the others who will be up there challenging too.
And there's some quality sprinters here too for the limited sprint stages that are on offer - Kittel may have pulled out too on Monday but Sam Bennett will relish the opportunity to take on an under-the-weather Mark Cavendish. We also have Elia Viviani, Luca Mezgec, Sagan and Colbrelli to make the sprints interesting.
2014 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alberto Contador | Tinkoff-Saxo | 25h 28min 45s |
| 2 | Nairo Quintana | Movistar Team | at 2m 05s |
| 3 | Roman Kreuziger | Tinkoff-Saxo | at 2m 14s |
The Route
The route takes them across the Appenine Centrale from the Tirreno Coast on the west to the Adriatic Coast on the east, as the name hints at.. As you can see in the profile map below, it starts and end dead flat on the coasts, but as they move inland it starts to get a little lumpier, with stages 4 and 5 posing the biggest challenges and the biggest opportunities for the GC men to make their mark.
The summit finish to stage 5 at Teminillo is going to be a real battle and we could see some big time gaps appear, possibly big enough to make the rest of the race a formality. But with the likes of Contador, Quintana and Nibali here, it could be really tight and we could see a battle royale on that final, flat out and back time trial on the final stage.
Prologue
Prologue - Lido di Camaiore
Wednesday, March 11th, 5.7kms ITT
A major revamp to the route was announced late on Monday afternoon, when as a result of major storm damage to the route for the TTT, the organisers decided to scrap the TTT and replace it with a much shorter 5.7km prologue. This is a major blow to the teams who came here prepped for a TTT but on a course as short as this it shouldn't inconvenience the GC favourites too much and will acually probably mean the time differences between the GC favourites may not be as bad as it could have been with the TTT.
There is a new map for the route which you can see below, but I haven't seen a new profile yet.. but as they are riding on the first part of the same route the profile will be similar - dead flat!
This is going to be an intersting stage now then. 5.7kms is just a long sprint! The 6.7kms in Paris Nice over a more lumpy course took the winner 7'40", they should do this flat course in and around 6 and a half minutes. As we saw in Paris Nice it means that there will be a mix of TT experts like Malori, Cancellara and Durbridge, but also brings in the power men and sprinters in to play too. Peter Sagan, Niki Terpstra, Steve Cummings, Bauke Mollema, even the likes of Mark Cavendish over this distance, he has been known to put in excellent short TT times.
The riders are starting at 13:10 local time with Davide Villela the first off, the last rider off the ramp is Alberto Contador at 16:04. The wind is going to be very light, around 3-4mph in the morning but picking up to around 8-9mph in the afternoon, so it could slightly favour the early starters.
Fabian Cancellara has been made the 7/2 favourite, given his record, power and form. This may be a little short for him though at just 5.7kms, might be hard for him to get the power down over such a short distance. He should be right up there in the top 5 though you'd think. Second favourite is Adrian Malori of Movistar and his star continues to rise as a time triallist. 2nd in the Algarve to Tony Martin (but just by milliseconds), winner of the 17km TT in the Tour de San Luis, he clearly has good legs at the moment. He should like this course and could be just a bit more nimble than Cancellara possibly over this distance.
This is a very hard stage to predict though as the course is so short - seconds will split the top 5 I think and the difference could be a slight change in the wind, a badly calculated pacing job and so on.. There could be some surprise packages tomorrow as I said before, and it may be that one of the early starters could be in the hot seat for a very long time.
That man could be Michael Hepburn - He is 16th off the ramp at 13:25 and it is likely he'll have the best time for most of the day you'd think. Australian TT champion last year, winner of the ITT in Qatar over 10kms last year, 2nd in the ITT in Tirreno last year over 18kms, The only worry would be that over the short distance of 9.6kms in the Eneco Tour he was 16th and well off the pace of the likes of Cancellara. I think though that at 18/1 he will give us a bit of excitement for a lot of the day and if the wind picks up it could help his cause.
Jesse Sergent and Peter Sagan are around 10/1 and Jesse Sergent warmed up for this in almost perfect fashion just last week in the Driedaagse Van West Vlaanderen, taking 2nd place in the prologue over just 7kms. This gives him a dress rehearsal for this TT that he didn't expect and might give him a slight edge on a lot of his rivals. He completed the course in an average speed of 52.4kmph and that is pretty fast - if he can repeat that tomorrow he shoud be capable of a top 5 place at worst.
Peter Sagan I'm not so sure about. Sure, he is super powerful and he is capable of decent times over shorter distances, but he had a hard race last Sunday and may have other targets in this race that he will save the legs for. He is a voracious competitor though and I wouldn't put it past him to win this to silence some doubters.
Lieuwe Westra and Niki Terpstra are both very powerful riders who could do well over this course too, Terpstra in particular has looked incredibly strong lately. He has had a lot of hard racing lately though and couldn't go with the race deciding move on Sunday in the Strade so I'm not sure about him at just 13/1. Westra was well off the pace in 21st place in the 10km TT in Oman and as he is here to look after Nibali you'd imagine that the last thing they will want is to be trying to defend a jersey from day one.
Maciej Bodnar could go well at 25/1, as could Steve Cummings who's a powerful rider but was way off the pace in the ITT over 8kms in Andalucia, finishing in 32nd, and then pulled out two days later. I'll pass on him I think this time. Stybar clearly has great legs and might pull off a surprise ride at 66/1 and Ian Stannard looks big at 100/1 but it's probably on the short side for him.
Overall though, I think Cancellara, Malori, Sergent and Hepburn are likely top 3 material and I'm leaning towards Malori taking it with Sergent and Hepburn reasonable each-way shouts at 10/1 and 18/1.
Recommendations:
1pt win on Adriano Malori at 9/2 with PP
0.5pts each-way on Jesse Sergent at 10/1 with BetVictor
0.5pts each-way on Michael Hepburn at 18/1 with PP
Route Map
Profile
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Camaiore to Cascina
Thursday March 12th, 153km
So a good start with Malori winning the stage by 1" from Cancellara, I did say there would only be seconds between the top 5, it was only 2"! Hepburn and Sergent were very disappointing, and the surprise package of the day was Greg Van Avermaet who once again showed why he is one of the best bike riders in the world right now by taking 3rd place, just 1" behind Cancellara.
In the GC battle, it was indeed my man Uran who came off best, finishing in 19th place, just 10" off the pace. Nibali did an excellent time trial to finish in 21st, just 1" behind Uran. Contador finished in 67th place and has lost 9" to Uran, Quintana has lost 10" to his compatriot. Thibaut Pinot did a good TT to lose only 3" to Uran, he has shortened up to just 20/1 with 365, he is still available at 80/1 with Ladbrokes! Contador is still the same price but Uran has shortened a little to around 6/1 now, Nibali has shortened to 11/1 best, as short as 6/1.
This is a day for the sprinters as they head south to Cascina on a very short stage of just 153kms. They start with a loop around Camaiore which takes them over the climb of Ptoro twice before they head out on the road south, and the further south they go, the flatter the road becomes. With 40kms to go they reach Cascina and start on a loop out around the town before finishing with a dead flat and straigh road that is perfect for a fast sprint.
Mark Cavendish has been installed the even money favourite with both PP and Bet365. That is a very short price for a guy who has been suffering from a bug for the last 4 days since returning from South Africa. Of course, he is absolutely flying this year and Kuurne Brussels Kuurne was a top class performance, the way he accelerated past Kristoff. That sort of kick should see him win this. But, he has been ill, and he has been beaten by Viviani this year remember. He did go out and beat him the next stage, but it shows that Viviani has the beating of him if things go his way.
Viviani has had a good start to his life at Sky with a win, a 2nd and two 3rds, including coming from a mile back to snatch 3rd in KBK last week. Incidentally, he and Cav finished on the same time today in the TT, two very good times by them. They have two very good leadout trains here so it should be a real battle in the last 2kms. I just have a feeling that Cav may struggle tomorrow and Viviani is the man to take advantage I feel.
Pelucchi and Sagan are both around 11/1 - Sagan did a reasonable TT but I feel he will not be good enough to beat either of the top guys. Peluccchi has gone off the boil a little since the first few races of the season, and he could only manage 10th in KBK. I'm going to pass on him tomorrow I think. Modolo and Mezgec are also around the 12-16/1 sort of price but again they are only scrapping for 2nd or 3rd place at best. Like Cav and Viviani, these two finished on the exact same time as each other too today, in 122nd and 123rd place! Modolo has had a few average results, Mezgec at least has got his nose in front in the Haut-Var. Mezgec has a really strong leadout here though, the leadout that was sent here to win stages for Kittel, so I think he could be in with a good chance of taking a podium spot.
Sam Bennett could go close too at 18/1 but I think there might be other stages better suited to him.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Elia Viviani at 9/2 with Paddy Power
0.5pts each-way on Luca Mezgec at 14/1 with Bet365
Route Map
Profile
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Ascina to Arezzo
Friday March 13th, 203km
An unlucky result in Cascina when Mark Cavendish caused a crash that took out both of my guys, when both of them were moving up nicely and well in contention. Mezgec must have felt good as he was going for the sprint, the deal was that if he hadn't recovered from the flu that had been affecting him then they would work for Arndt. Viviani was wheel surfing nicely and looked good.. unfortunately they didn't get in a blow. Debuscherre took a great win and Sam Bennett again underlined how good he is getting with his first World Tour podium place.
This stage sees them head inland a lot more as they head towards Arezzo. The first half of the route has a couple of little lumps to get over, the San Martino after 54kms and the Poggio all Croce after 82kms, but as the latter comes 120kms from the finish they shouldn't really make a major impact on the outcome of the race, as it's likely to be a sprint finish again. Having said that though, we could see a breakaway make it as the rolling course and a possible head/cross wind could split things up.
With 55kms to go they enter Arezzo and start a circuit of 11kms which they do 5 times. I said earlier it could be a sprint finish, but it isn't a sprint for the pure sprinters, as the final kilometre kicks up at 5% average to make it a really tricky finish. Not only is it uphill, hitting 11% at the bottom of the climb, they also have to go through a gate and over some pavé so it really should be a cracking finish - a battle between the GC men, the stronger sprinters like Bennett and the classics men like Sagan, Boassen Hagen and Cancellara.
The prices that are out now have made Peter Sagan the 5/2 favourite (as short as 11/8) and the main reason for that is that he won this exact same stage last year in superb fashion, going after Gilbert who had made the jump for victory and sprinting past him in the last 100m. Sagan has yet to taste victory this year, but came as close as you can do in today's stage again, just being beaten by Debus. This finish is perfect for him and the guys who finished 2nd to 5th last year are all in Paris-Nice. He is short at 5/2 based on the fast he has struggled a little this year, but he will not have a better chance on winning a race this year I think and should finally break his duck.
Greg Van Avermaet is 2nd favourite at 10/1 and he has a solid chance of being in the mix too. He could attack up that last hill like he did in Strade Bianche, but his problem is that he will probably be outsprinted at the finish by a couple of guys like Sagan, as Stybar did on Sunday. He may have to settle for a top 10. This finish should suit Zdenek Stybar well too, he looked super powerful last Sunday and easily outsprinted GVA at the finish. If he can be in the right place coming to the last 500m he should be a real danger.
Cancellara is 14/1, but I can't have him tomorrow. Eddie Boassen Hagen looked very strong today, leading out for Tyler Farrar and this sort of finish would suit him too you think, but I think 5th to 10th for him. It's wide open behind, but three guys at big prices I want to back are Daniele Benatti, Sam Bennett and Magnus Cort Neilsen.
Benatti was the first home last year of the riders that are here this year, finishing in 5th place. He tweeted today '2morrow we arrive in my City, will honor the race 4 my fans!' so his motivation and his intentions are clear. He should be in the mix coming up the hill again this year and may be helping to lead out Sagan, if so he could stay on and take a podium spot. If someone else like Etixx take it up he can sit in with Sagan and attack at the finish. Worth a small bet at 100/1 with that in mind.
Sam Bennett finished very strongly today and will like this kind of finish, if he can stay at the front coming around the bend on to the flat finishing sprint he could well take this stage. Again, at 66/1 it's worth a shot. Finally, Magnus Cort Neilsen - the young Dane is a rider with huge potential and last year he had a huge amount of impressive results while riding with the Pro Conti team Cult Energy. Now he is in the big league with Orica GreenEdge and he showed the legs are good with a fine 6th place in today's sprint. He likes an uphill finish as he showed on a number of occassions last year, and at 50/1 with Paddy Power he could cause a surprise tomorrow. He is only 18/1 with Bet365 which is too short altogether though..
Recommendations:
2pts win on Peter Sagan at 5/2 with Paddy Power
0.5pts e/w on Zdenek Stybar at 12/1 with PP
0.25pts e/w on Sam Bennett at 66/1 with BetVictor
0.2pts e/w on Daniele Bennati at 100/1 with Bet365
0.3pts e/w on Magnus Cort Nielsen at 50/1 with Bet365
MatchBets
Pim Ligthart to beat Simon Geschke - 1.5pts at evens
Stybar to beat Van Avermaet - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365
Route Map
Profile
Last kms
Stage 3
Stage 3 - Indicatore (Arezzo) to Castelraimondo
Saturday March 14th, 218km
A chaotic finish in Arezzo today and a throughly brilliant win by Greg Van Avermaet. I'm delighted he finally made the breakthrough, annoyed I wasn't on him when he did it as I back him so often!! I'm also annoyed as he denied me my second 1-2 in two days as Sagan finished second (again) with Stybar in 3rd. At least Stybar landed the each-way money at 12/1, pity that GVA blew the match-bet with Stybar!
Great rides by Cancellara, Pozzato, Geschke to finish in the top 6, Uran was the best of the GC men in an impressive 9th, but all the GC men finished in the front group, not losing any time. It's a bit incredible that Sagan managed to screw it up again and again finish second. He tweeted tonight "seems like I like 2nd places ;)" - I doubt Oleg and Bjarne think it's so funny.
This is the longest stage of the race at 218kms and it sees them start to reach hillier ground as they head further south-east towards Castelraimondo. There are plenty of hills to get over on the route, four of which are categorised climbs and another three or so which aren't but still could pose a few problems.
The hills start with a categorised climb inside the first 13kms with the climb of the Foce della Scopetone. The road rolls along for over 100kms taking them over a little hill with 120kms gone, then they descend for about 20kms before they tackle the big climb of the day, the Poggio San Romualdo. The climb averages 7% over 10kms so we could see the first real splits of the race as the GC teams put some pressure on. With the first real opportunity to take the KOM jersey there should be plenty of attacks, and there could be a break get away that could possibly stay away to the finish.
The last 80kms are very lumpy though and with 25kms to go they enter the closing circuit which they do twice. The circuit takes them over the climb of the Crispiero which should make it a cracking finish. The climb averages a steep 9.3% over 3kms, hitting a max of 13% 1km in to the hill. The climb rises and dips as it goes up, hitting 11% near the top too. Then it's a 6km fast descent down to Castelraimondo followes by 4kms along the flat as they wind their way back to the start of the climb of the Crispiero again.
There should be furious attacking up the climb this time around as once over the top there are only 6.5kms of a very fast descent to go, with a final little kick up for the last 250m at 4%. There's a couple of tight bends to negotiate in the closing stages, including a sharp left-hander just 250m from the line. The last 250m are dead straight though, so if there is a little group comes to the finish together it should make for a good finish.
This is nearly impossible stage to pick a winner from. I'm tempted to just not try to pick a winner from this stage and just go to bed early! I was thinking at first that it would be doubtful we will get much agressive attacking from the GC men with the Queen stage the next day. Having said that though, they could save themselves for one blast up the Crispiero the final time around. There are only 6.5kms of a descent after the top of the hill to the finish, so we could see the likes of Contador, Uran or Pinot attack hard on the climb in an effort to break things to pieces.
It looks like that is the most likely scenario, I think the GC teams will control the break and may catch it the first time up the Crispiero. That will set it up then for the GC men to test each other - it's a short climb at just 3kms, but the gradient of over 9% is very hard. It will be hard for the sprinter/classics guys to stay with the climbers if they put the hammer down, and I expect them to - if they can strip it down to a small group and get 20"+ over the top, they could stay away to fight it out.
If Contador does attack, it's unlikely he'll solo to victory, the climb isn't hard enough for that. He won't win the sprint finish though. Same goes for Rigoberto Uran. Thibaut Pinot could well be in there though, he is going really well, has been training hard in Mallorca and his Strava times show that he is really flying at the moment. If he gets to the finish with the climbers, he could be one of the fastest.
Peter Sagan is the 5/1 favourite and if he can hang in there on the climb then he should have a big chance of victory. There is a chance he will be dropped on the climb though, the climbers will do their best to ensure that, and I'm not tempted to back him just now at that price. It's one to watch and decide in-play maybe.
Bauke Mollema is going well at the moment too and he has a pretty decent finishing kick on him - at 50/1 he could offer value as one of those guys who should hang in there and would have a strong chance in the sprint. Leo Konig and Mikel Nieve could try the 1-2 on the climb if they have the legs, Nieve might be able to stay with Contador but doesn't have a great kick, Konig's would be slightly stronger.
Joaquim Rodriguez and Nairo Quintana are both around the 12/1 mark, and they don't appeal at all. Rodriguez doesn't seem to have great legs and has a rubbish sprint, Quintana will be marked too closely and won't get away, and he won't win many sprints. Dan Martin is only 22/1 and that's not something I'm interested in really. He has done very little racing and we haven't seen much of him in this race, although he did finish well today in the final climb to Arezzo so the legs can't be too bad.
Maybe he'll test himself here and try to stay with the attacks rather than instigate them, with one eye on the next too. I think the hill might be a bit tough for the likes of Van Avermaet and Stybar, but they are in such great form they might be able to hang in there and then would have a great chance at the finish.
One I do like though is Rinaldo Nocentini - he can climb, he finished 17th today, so the legs are alright and if he gets to the finish with the lead group he has a decent sprint on him. At 40/1 he's one of my bets for tomorrow. Navardauskas could go well, as could Nibali, Roman Kreuziger, Javier Moreno, Domenico Pozzovivo, Giampaolo Caruso and Simon Geschke are all guys who could go well, hard to single one out. I think like in Paris-Nice I'll watch it in play and post some other bets on Twitter, watch out for those.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Rinaldo Nocentini at 40/1 with PP
0.3pts each-way on Thibaut Pinot at 40/1 with PP
0.4pts each-way on Bauke Mollema at 22/1 with PP
Watch Twitter for more updates in-play.
Matchbets:
Giampaolo Caruso to beat Michele Scarponi - 3pts at 4/7
Nocentini to beat Arredondo - 2pts at 5/6
Mollema to beat Rodriguez - 2pts at 5/6
Route Map
Profile
Stage 4
Stage 4 - Esanatoglia to Terminillo
Sunday March 15th, 194km
What a stunning ride from Wout Poels today, sprinting past Dani Moreno on the climb and holding off a charging peloton all the way to the line. An incredible performance for sure. It puts him in to the leader's jersey ahead of the Queen stage on Sunday but it is still all to play for - 20 riders are just 43" behind him with a cracking stage ahead of them on Sunday. I came very close with my 66/1 shot Nocentini, Uran and Rodriguez surprisingly sprinting for the placings and his team-mate Vuillermoz taking a place off him too.. I'd have been very pissed off if he'd taken 3rd and Nocentini finished 4th! He did a lot of work for Pozzovivo, all to no avail as he was unable to go with Caruso when he made the move that helped launch Poels, I wish he'd have saved himself for the finish!
The match bets did ok but Rodriguez spoiled it by busting the 3rd one beating Mollema, to result in a -1pt loss here, but a 9pt profit on the day with Paris-Nice's result.
Stage 5 sees them head south to Terminillo on the toughest stage of the race and this is also likely to be the stage that decides the overall GC with it's hard summit finish. The stage starts hard with an uncategorised climb inside the first 7kms and this is followed by the next climb which starts just 14kms later. The climb of the Passo Sallegri is 10kms long at an average of around 6% and we should see the first selection get rid of the sprinters and the unfit.
After a near 20kms descent they start on the second climb of the day, the climb of Le Arette. This is a lot longer at around 20kms, but has an easier average gradient of around 3.5%. The final kilometres are the steepest, so we will probably see another push at the front to thin out the peloton. For those that can hang on in there and not lose too much on the climb though they have plenty of opportunity to get back on in time for the finale, as they descend for the best part of 70kms before the road starts to kick up again.
There are a couple of little lumps to get over before the main event of the day, the summit finish at Terminillo. The climb is 16kms long at an average of 7.3%, hitting a max of 12% around the 4km point on the climb. the lower parts of the climb are the hardest, with kilometres 2-7 averaging 8.1%, before it eases a little to just 4% for around a kilometre before kicking up again for the last 7.5kms at 7.9% average. The last 2kms sees it hit 9.2% average for 500m but the last 500m eases back to just 2.8% in time for a sprint finish amongst whoever is left!
This is a very steady climb once it starts kicking up with 7kms or so to go to the finish, so if someone can get away and get in to a good rhythm then they might be hard to catch. It's likely that the likes of Astana, Tinkoff-Saxo and Movistar will keep the pressure on the whole way up this climb in order to let the big three fight it out for stage and GC glory in the last 2 or 3 kms.
The first three climbs should see breaks go, possible multiple groups on the road as guys miss the first break but try to get away on the second and third climbs. It should then settle down in to a chase downhill for more or less 70kms, during which time the lead should be whittled way down as the Rouleurs do their job at the front of the peloton.
The rolling roads they traverse for the last 40kms before the start of the Terminillo should see the gap close right up as the GC teams wind it up and the break tire. It should all be set for a showdown on the final climb, the break might have a minute or so lead going in to it, but that should disappear before they reach the little respite about half way up.
The climb has three sections to it. A hard opening section of 7kms at 8.1% average, hitting 9-12% around 4kms in to it. It then eases off to around 4% average for about 1.5kms before they start on the final kick up to the finish, which is 7kms at an average of around 7.9%. The last 3kms are quite steep, averaging 8.5% before it eases to just 2.8% for the final 500m.
I think the domestiques for Tinkoff-Saxo, Etixx-Quick Step and Astana will drill it in the first part of the climb to thin it out to maybe only 10 or 20 riders. There will be a bit of a hiatus in the middle part while they look at each other a little, then the team leaders will take over and fight it out for stage and overall glory.
Contador will be favourite for the stage given his results and the form he has shown and will need to be very aggressive on the stage in order to win overall I think. He should lose time to Uran and Nibali in the final time trial and he already has a 32" handicap to overcome so he will be desperate for the bonus seconds at the finish. I think he will need to put 10-20" in to Uran and Nibali on the climb too to give himself a 20" cushion or so going in to the TT, so it's not a matter of if, but when he attacks. And indeed, he has opened the 11/8 favourite for the stage, which is short, but about right I think. Having watched today's stage again though, I'm surprised he didn't try something on the climb when Poels went, even just to see the reaction behind. Maybe he was just saving himself for tomorrow, maybe the legs weren't that great today..
He attacked quite early on that climb in Andalucia, 9.3kms from the finish when Ivan Basso drove at the front leading him in to the final climb and strung out the peloton brilliantly to allow Contador to launch off the front and already have a decent gap on those caught out behind. He quickly got the gap up to 30" and held it, only losing a little near the top when Froome really got in to top gear. He could well attack from the 7kms sort of distance when it kicks up, and it will be interesting to see the reaction from his main rivals.
Rigoberto Uran has been looking good and showed he was race fit with a strong finish on the sprint uphill in Arezzo and again today when he sprinted to 2nd place to steal 6 bonus seconds. He showed that he has good legs and he is most definitely switched on. He also did a good TT so is pushing good watts, but what will happen when Contador goes full gas after the T-S boys have strung it out for 7kms before that? Will he be able to respond and go with him? He does look the most likely to, but who knows how he will respond as we haven't really seen his climbing legs this year. Strade Bianche was pretty impressive but this is a different matter altogether. It may even be that he is the one that attacks and surprises Contador, if he has the legs he had on the second mountain stage, as opposed to the first mountain stage, in Andalucia, then Uran could leave him behind.
Nibali seems to be getting better as the week goes on. He did a better TT than I expected, and finished well up there on the scrappy finish to Arezzo yesterday, taking 16th place. He hasn't looked comfortable on the climbs this year though and wasn't going good at all at the business end of Strade Bianche and he could find himself under pressure again tomorrow. I wrote that this morning before I saw how he rode today, he was going a lot better but still lost 7" to Contador's group. I still think he'll struggle!
Steve Cummings has done well so far, is sitting in 3rd place, just 26" off the lead. He has been climbing ok this year but I think he will struggle big time tomorrow and slip right out of contention. A surprise result for me today was Joaquim Rodriguez - he was prominent on the climb of the Crispiero, sitting just behind the Movistar and Astana squads. He had a team-mate up the road in Moreno so could just sit in and then sprinted to an impressive 3rd place, something I did not see happening, he must have been 100/1 or more for today's stage. If he can hang in there tomorrow and his legs are good after all, he could be a big danger to the stage victory.
Wout Poels looked good today with his acceleration and power to the finish and he is in a great position now in the GC with a 17" advantage over Uran and 30+ seconds on Contador and co. Who knows how he will go now on this far harder and longer climb, I can't see him staying with the top climbers, but he did look very impressive today and he is wearing the leader's jersey after all. If you think he can hang in there with the best he is a huge price at 10/1 to win overall, he's got a decent time trial in him. I'm annoyed though that I picked two members of the Sky squad when Froome pulled out, but picked the wrong ones with Konig and Nieve!
Nairo Quintana rode ok today too, sitting in on the wheels of the leaders, very often just in behind Contador and Nibali, and I tried to read his face when he was climbing.. Of course it's nearly impossible to read Quintana's face, but he did seem to be puffing and blowing quite a lot. He should like this climb you'd think, especially if it was May or July, but I'm not sure how he'll go tomorrow, but he should be there or thereabouts.
Pozzovivo was disappointing today on the steep final section of the climb, you'd have thought the type of climb he should love - he wasn't able to go with Caruso when he looked like he might attack and do something. I can't see him suddenly riding away from Contador and Uran tomorrow based on that. Dani Moreno and Giampaolo Caruso both gave it a go today too but both faded quite quickly. Mikel Nieve is just 33/1 for the stage tomorrow but surely he will now be charged with looking after Poels? Unless they know that Poels is not suited to tomorrow's stage and give Nieve the orders to stay with the leaders and go for it himself.. too much of a risk at 33/1.
De Marchi lost 10 minutes today, I can't have him. Dan Martin rode well today and finished with the lead group in 15th place. This would suggest the legs are pretty good and he looks very big at 50/1. He could hang in there and give it a go late on on the climb while the top GC men watch each other.
Finally, Thibaut Pinot - he too has been riding really well and finished just one place behind Dan Martin. As I said yesterday, his training numbers have been really good and he could well be involved in the final selection in this stage. He could be a podium contender at tempting 25/1 with PP. Jurgen Van Den Broeck rode well today and he could be an interesting outsider at a big 100/1.
Overall though, I think Contador will attack and leave them all behind with 4kms or so to go. Uran will give chase with Pinot and Quintana and Martin and Uran, Martin and Pinot will fight it out for the runners-up spot behind Contador. The question is, will he take enough time to make it comfortable in the TT? That I'm not so certain of, but fingers crossed. Uran is still looking good for the podium, hopefully that goes well too. The match-bet treble is currently winning, hopefully that stays as it is too!
One very important factor to bear in mind though is that there were reports of snow on the upper slopes of the Terminillo tonight and there were rumours doing the rounds that the course might be shortened or changed, so watch out for news on that as it would make a big difference to the outcome of the stage and the GC. Let's hope they get to ride it though and the race is run as it should be.
Recommendations
3pts win on Alberto Contador at 11/8 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Thibaut Pinot at 25/1 with PP
0.3pts each-way on Dan Martin at 50/1 with Bet365
MatchBets
Caruso to beat Nocentini - 3pts at 8/11
Meintjes to beat Rolland - 3.5pts at 4/7
Van den Broeck to beat Niemiec - 2pts at 5/4
Uran to beat Nibali, Pinot to beat Nieve, Contador to beat Quintana - 2pts on the treble at 7/4 with Bet365
Route Map
Profile
Terminillo
Last kms
Stage 5
Stage 5 - Rieto to Porto Sant'Elpidio
Monday March 16th, 210km
A dramatic last 15kms today saw Nairo Quintana put all-comers to the sword with a superb attack, to not only take the stage but to also put himself in a very strong position now to take the overall. The latest betting after today's stage puts him the 1/25 favourite to win, from 8/1 pre-race. Bauke Mollema rode brilliantly today to leave Contador and Co. behind and go in pursuit, he has jumped up the GC, from 7th to 2nd place, 39" behind Quintana. Uran has put himself in with a good shot at the podium with a strong finish today to take 4th place, and he now sits in 3rd place, 9 seconds ahead of Pinot in 4th.
Contador was disappointing today. He seemed to wave some riders through at one point which was like a green light for Quintana to attack.. When he did, Contador was caught too far back in the group and was unable to react as quick as he should. And even then when he tried to react, he didn't have his usual explosiveness and was just not able to escape from the others, who seemed more interested in marking him than helping to catch Quintana. Pinot gave it all he had but also didn't have the power to go after Quintana. But that was a big statement from Quintana. There were question marks and doubts about his race fitness, but if that's what he's like if unfit then he's in for a hell of a year. JVDB rode well but finished 4 places behind Niemiec to spoil that matchbet, only for that I'd have finished more or less flat. Instead a 4.1pt loss..
With the big finish of Stage 5 out of the way this stage is a rolling affair that sees them mostly descend back towards the coast. There are a couple of lumps to get over along the way and the profile is perfect for a strong breakwaway group, but it's likely that the GC leader's team will look to control things and keep it together, unless the break contains no threat to the GC.
As they arrive at the finish town of Porto Sant'Elpidio they start on two laps of a 14.4kms circuit, a circuit which contains a little lump at 2.9% average for 1500m with 7kms to go. The finish is almost dead flat as they are on the coastline and the only danger really are the two sharp right hand turns they need to make with just over 1km to go as they double back on themselves to head to the finish on the beachfront. I expect it to be a sprinters finish, but with some tired legs after the tough stage the day before, the break may make it.
The rain and cold will continue tomorrow and they will have a cross-wind and head-wind for a lot of the stage. When on the finishing circuit they will have a tail wind on the stretch heading up to the U-turn with 1600m to go and then a head-wind for the finishing straight.
It should end in a sprint tomorrow I think, too many teams will want to try to get something out of the race and it's the last road stage of the race, with the TT the next day. Mark Cavendish is the 5/4 favourite for the stage with Paddy Power, he's 10/11 with Bet365. Cav caused the crash which brought down Viviani on stage 2 and will be desperate to make amends. He was not feeling so good at the start of the race, but may have recovered by now, as long as the climbing in the frozen temperatures today didn't take too much out of him. If he is feeling better, and he hasn't suffered too much today then that looks a bet that has to be taken.
His biggest rival possibly for a sprint like this, Elia Viviani has gone home, as has Matteo Pelucchi. Quick-Step still have a full squad with him and in Martin, Terpstra, Vermote and Renshaw he has the best lead-out left in the race. They will probably take him through the U-turn bend with 1600m to go in 2nd or 3rd wheel and Renshaw should launch him at the 200m mark. That's what should happen in theory anyway!
Challengers? Mr second place, Peter Sagan will be up there, but can he beat Cavendish? I don't think so.. He should be right up there though but I don't think he will be able to get past the E-QS train and will not have the speed to come around and past Cav.
Sam Bennett is 3rd favourite at 10/1 - the 50/1's on him are long gone now! He suffered a lot today on the climb to Terminillo in the cold and wet, he had Huzarski, Konrad and Dempster to look after him all day and ensure he finished within the time limit, so they must fancy his chances tomorrow. He is canny, he is clever, he is brave in a sprint and I wouldn't be surprised if he was sat right on Cavendish's wheel as he is launched with 200m to go - he may even try to get first jump on him and do a long sprint like he did in Qatar. I hope he isn't affected too much by the tough stage today, as I think he is well capable of a top 3, and if Cav is still under the weather, he might well beat him.
Alexander Porsev has sprinted well this year but has yet to break in to the top 3, taking three 4th places and a 6th place. He looks a bit short to me at 12/1 with PP, the 20/1 with Ladbrokes is a bit more tempting. Luca Mezgec was ruing being brought down in the Viviani crash on Stage 2, he was going well and could have taken a good placing. There were worries that he was not 100% on that stage and that the team would ride for Arndt if so, but he must have been feeling good as he was their sprint man in the end. They came here with the sprint train to help Kittel win stages, as I said on stage 2, so let's see how they do tomorrow against the E-QS boys. They tend to start their leadout too early sometimes though so they may have nothing left when it comes to the last 500m.
Jens Debusschere won the sprint on Stage 2, but of course that was helped by the chaos that had ensued behind. He was very strong in the sprint though, holding off Sagan, and he could well top 5 it again tomorrow. I'm not prepared to risk that he'll get in the top 3 though. Tyler Farrar has his whole squad with him still and with the likes of EBH, Goss, Cummings and co. he has a decent lead-out.. What isn't certain though is whether they give the young sprinter Sbaraglli a chance tomorrow, so I'm going to pass on him.
That's all I can see really getting involved in the podium battle, Modolo, Navardauskas, Cort etc - they will be 5th to 10th at best I think. This looks like a penalty kick given the opposition, but at the prices I'm going to have savers on Bennett and Mezgec.
Recommendations:
3pts win on Mark Cavendish at 5/4 with PP
1pt each-way on Sam Bennett at 10/1 with Ladbrokes
0.5pts each-way on Luca Mezgec at 14/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Cavendish to beat Modolo, Renshaw to beat Dempster - 2pts on the double at evens with Bet365
Bennett to beat Debusschere - 2pts at 8/11
Route Map
Profile
Last 5kms
Stage 6
Stage 6 - San Benedetto Del Tronto
Tuesday March 17th, 10km
What a poor result today, absolutely nothing went right on a horribly cold and wet day again and I had my worst result in quite a while.. Just as things were starting to go well too - the last two days have not been very nice in Tirreno.. Bennett was strong enough to stay in the pack going over the climb 80kms from the finish, but had no energy at the finish to contest the sprint and finished 8th. Looks like he didn't recover enough from the cold the day before when he was hauled up the hill by Zak Dempster. Cavendish fared even worse, he was dropped on the little climb 80kms from the finish and came home a long way behind the winners.
Peter Sagan finally took his first win of the season, sprinting powerfully ahead of 2013's Milan San Remo winner Gerald Ciolek and Jensdebus. Magnus Cort Nielsen sprinted to an impressive 4th but Nik Arndt failed to take advantage of the absence of Luca Mezgec at the finish, finishing out of the podium spots in 8th.
The final stage - a 10kms TT. This could be just a formality, a lap of honour, depending on how the GC looks after stage 5, but it could just as easily be that there are only a handful of seconds in it and we could see a thrilling battle for the victory on the streets of San Benedetto del Tronto. As it turns out, it does look like a procession for Nairo Quintana, he has a very safe-looking lead of 39" to Mollema and 48" to Uran.
This course is dead flat and almost a dead straight out and back route - they make a u-turn with exactly 5kms gone, the half-way point. It is one for the pure power men though, long, straight, flat stretches with almost no turns or obstacles other than street furniture to overcome. The one thing to watch out for though could be the winds coming in off the Adriatic sea, if they blow up they could have strong cross-winds both out and back, or possibly a head-wind for the opening 5kms and a tail-wind on the way back.
It looks like this stage is between two men - the same top two that were split by less than a second on the first stage, Malori and Cancellara. Malori came out on top in the prologue by less than one second, as Cancellara bemoaned afterwards "to be honest todays prologue was a kind of disaster for me. short prolog with lot of mistake. to win doesn't allow mistake's" (SIC!)
Since then, Malori has disappeared in to the pack, helping out where needed though to look after Quintana, but Cancellara has been a lot more prominent as he prepares for MSR, taking 5th in the uphill sprint in Arezzo. Malori is the evens favourite for the stage and he is very confident of a big result. He said today that he wants to 'close the race of the two seas in the best possible way' and that it will be a tough battle but he thinks he will beat him again. He also added that he doesn't think there are any others that can come close - "tomorrow will be a duel between the two of us"
And I think I have to agree - I think Malori will have the upper hand again and should win by 5" or so. Cancellara should be 2nd and the rest should be battling for third place again. Is there any value in backing Malori to win at the prices he is? He is best price 6/5 with BetVictor, as short as 8/11 with Ladbrokes. He is the most likely winner and if are happy to take a price around evens, then you should take it I think.
Cancellara should be second but is no each-way price at 5/2, and is 1/5 to finish in the top 3, again a no bet. So who finishes 3rd? Well I think it can be reduced down to a short-list of Sergent, Cummings, Bodnar and Brandle. Uran should put in a good time versus Contador and Quintana but he won't be troubling the podium.
Jesse Sergent posted a poor time in the prologue to finish way down in 23rd place, 11" down on Malori. That prologue was maybe on the short side for him and this TT at 10kms is more suited to him. Steve Cummings has riden extremely well this week to sit in 9th place overall and a good TT tomorrow could lift him maybe 4 places in the GC up to 5th. I think he will do a great ride tomorrow as he definitely has far more motivation than the other favourites for the stage.
The big problem we have though is that some of the bookies have taken the cowardly route again here and are only offering 1/4 the odds each-way for the first two, not three which you would expect. So basically, if you fancy any of the rest to break in to the top 3, you have to hope they finish 2nd in order to get a payout. The only bookie offering top 3 each-way is BetVictor, so if you can get on with them, the 16/1 on Cummings is worth a bet I think. It's better than taking the 7/4 with Bet365 that he finishes in the top 3.
Maciej Bodnar and Matthias Brandle both did great prologues, finishing milliseconds apart from each other in 4th and 5th place and I think they will be in similar positions tomorrow. Brandle opened at 66/1 with PP and I was teeing up a bet as soon as I saw that around 5pm and in the time it took me to put the bet in the betslip they had already cut him to 33/1 which wasn't as attractive. He is now 40/1 which is a bit tempting, but I'm thinking 4th + again for him. Bodnar was in 2nd place behind Malori with 22 riders left to finish in the prologue but slipped down 2 places by the time it's over. I think we could see something similar this time.
There's not a lot of options really then for tomorrow, I think Malori wins again and Cummings might offer some value at 16/1 each-way to finish in the top 3 so he can move in to the top 6. Jonathan Castroviejo has been time trialling well this year, he seems to have got in the groove again. He finished 6th in the 19kms TT in the Algarve and 11th in the prologue, beating Uran by 2". I think he is capable of beating him again in their match-bet at 10/11
Recommendations:
2pts win on Adriano Malori at evens with BetVictor (the 6/5 is gone..)
0.5pts each-way on Steve Cummings at 16/1 with BetVictor
Matchbets:
Cummings to beat Bodnar at 4/6 - 1.2pts
Castroviejo to beat Uran - 2.2pts at 10/11
Route Map
Profile
Overall Contenders and Favourites
Alberto was going to be the battle of the big GC men, the first time all four were racing against each other since.... The race is of course without Chris Froome now, which is a shame, but there should hopefully be a good battle between the rest of the starters. I say 'should' be a good battle between the other favourites, but although Contador looks to be in great shape, there are question marks about the other two favourites, but I'll come on to that..
Alberto Contador was 11/8 Monday morning as the news broke that Froome was not going to be taking part (Froome was 13/8) but after the news broke he was chopped to 4/7, and as low as 2/5 with Betvictor who are not taking any chances. I managed to get 2.5pts on at 11/8 before they cut it but I'm not sure what price they'll settle at if they try to claim a rule 4 because of Froome's withdrawal.
The price is too low now to recommend backing him but he does look the obvious winner. Reigning champion with a dominant victory of over 2 minutes last year from his nearest rival. He showed in Andalucia that his climbing legs are in great shape when he destroyed the field on stage 4. Ok, it looks like he put himself too much in to the red in trying to score points against Froome and paid for it the next day, but with only one summit finish in this race he can try it again with the safety of the next stage being a relatively easy one. In hindsight it may have been that Bertie got a bit too eager and maybe should have held that effort for the second stage, but he's a racer - he rides on gut instinct and at the time it was the best thing in his head to do. He went very early that day - at the very bottom of the climb after some great work by Basso. Ivan Basso is here again to help put him in the right position coming in to the climb and is aided by a reasonable team that includes Tossato and Juul-Jensen to drive at the front also.
He should do ok in the short time trial, maybe lose 15" to the winner, but probably not more than 5-10" to his GC rivals like Quintana and Nibali. Same with the last TT, but Nibali, if he's after picking up form and is in contention could do a stronger TT than him on the final day.
I think though he'll kick away from them on the steeper parts with about 7kms to go again and they will have a very hard job trying to catch him. He put 2 minutes in to the likes of Bardet and Nieve in Andalucia and that was a super performance. If he can do something similar here he could very quickly put the race to bed. Of course there are plenty of other stages he could lose it on, a break could go, a crash could happen, he could suffer like in Andalucia stage 4 and others could produce a storming ride to turn the tables.
Nairo Quintana is now the 8/1 co-favourite with Rigoberto Uran. Quintana started the year as he usually does in San Luis, and despite being favourite he was well beaten on the mountain stages by the local riders who were fired up and race-fit. He followed this with a crash in the Colombian Nationals Road Race and that set him back a little. Since then, according to reports he has been training really hard in Colombia, training of course which probably involved a lot of climbing!
He has only just arrived in Europe however and it may take him a little while to get accustomed to racing and the weather and so on, and as we saw last year, he was easily dispatched by Contador who attacked him a full 32kms from the finish! (see him in the background in the big picture of Contador at the top of this preview! Of course there is no doubting his talent and his climbing prowess but I'm not attracted by him for whatever reason.. I think he may struggle a little again and if he does he'll be left behind by the Saxo man.
Rigoberto Uran is also 8/1 and he's a little bit more interesting. Winner of the ITT championships in Colombia earlier this year, he won't be far off the pace in the prologue and may finish the best of the GC candidates. He should also do well in the final TT, so depending on how well he does on the summit finish he has a chance of being in the top 3. He rode very well in the Strade Bianche at the weekend, finishing 3rd of the second wave of riders to take 4th on the day so his legs must be in great shape. He looks fit and healthy and happy and he could be a big danger I think.
Steve Cummings rather inexplicably has been backed in to 12/1 with Bet365 and I really can't get my head around it.. Ok, he's not a bad TTer, but his only TT this year so far was pretty poor. He did mug Alejandro Valverde in Majorca to steal an impressive win, but that is an altogether different matter to the hills he'll have to get over here with the GC favourites. I'm not touching him at that price. 100/1 maybe..
Vincenzo Nibali is 12/1 and I'll keep it brief, he is not on my short-list. I think he's pacing his preparation again this year and will not be at a level to challenge. We saw him struggling again on Sunday in Strade Bianche and I can see him slip back with 4 or 5kms to go on stage 5.
Roman Kreuziger is 16/1, but you'd have to think it will take an accident or misfortune on Contador's part for him to become a challenger, that price is rubbish. Domenico Pozzovivo leads AG2R here and the little pocket rocket is 33/1 to pull off a surprise victory on home soil. He did ok in the Tour down Under, I was told he was flying out there but it wasn't to be for our bets, but strangely he hasn't raced since. You'd have thought they might have given him a run in the Strade Bianche like Uran to blow off some cobwebs, but he didn't take part. It's hard to know then what sort of legs he has then. 6th here last year, he's not a bad time triallist on his day but these flat tests are not his preferred course. I think 6th to 10th for him again.
Lieuwe Westra is 40/1 and like Kreuziger, he will be looking after Nibali and will only get his chance to lead should something happen to Nibali. Bauke Mollema is 66/1 and that is a tempting price. He has been working a lot on his time trialling and should do ok over such a short distance, but the question is how will he cope when Contador or Uran or Quintana puts the hammer down on the Terminillo? I think he'll roll home in about 6th or 8th place on that stage and will end up in 5th to 10th place overall at best, so it's a no bet for me, even at a very tempting price.
Joaquim Rodriguez is 50/1 but will lose too much time in the TTs to make up whatever he could have stolen on the climbs, IF he was at his absolute best, so no chance for me. Mikel Nieve is now 50/1 and as short as 33/1 and Leopold Konig is 66/1. The Sky plans seem to be that Nieve is now the team leader in the absence of Froome and given how well he rode in Andalucia, taking a super 3rd place (best of the rest) on stage 4 and 5th place on stage 3. He could be a big danger in the hills but is pretty awful on a TT bike so he may struggle. But if he can ride home with Contador and Quintana maybe on the big climb he could squeeze in to a top 3. 50/1 might still be worth a go, he could attack on that climb and if Contador, Quintana, Uran and co. look at each other and play games he could be gone.
Leopold 'the king' Konig started the season well with a 5th and a 3rd place in majorca and followed that up with an average performance in the heat of Oman. Apparently he really suffered in the heat over there and so will be much more comfortable in the cooler climes of T-A. He can time trial and he can climb and with Froome out of the race it gives the big signing from Netapp an opportunity to show the team why they should get behind him for the Giro d'Italia, which is one of his major goals for the season. I backed him at 125/1 but the 66/1 might still be worth a nibble each-way.
There are some huge prices then for some world-class riders - Jurgen Van Den Broeck 100/1, Javier Moreno 100/1, Przemyslaw Niemiec 100/1, Thibaut Pinot 100/1, Daniel Martin 200/1, Julian Arredondo 200/1, Meintjes 200/1.. Dan Martin makes his seasonal debut so is sure to be a bit ring-rusty and also the two time-trials won't suit him at all. Arredondo has been riding well recently and went on the attack in the Strade for a good day's training in the hills. There are question marks over all of them really, mostly because of the two time trials..
So verdict time - I think Contador will be very hard to beat in this and I am pretty happy with the 2.5 points I got on at 11/8. He is now best priced 8/13 and that is too short now.. might even be worth waiting a few days until after the prologue and the hectic opening days, his price might drift a little or you may avoid any incidents or accidents.
Rigo Uran looks a big danger to him to me based on the performance in the Strade, and is worth an each-way shot. Hard to know how Nairo will go and the 8/1 on offer does look like a tempting each-way bet to nothing, you'd expect him to be in the top 3 on Stage 4 and that could seal a podium spot.
As I have them at big prices, I'll be cheering the Sky boys, but it really is wide open beyond that. Nibali should have the class to finish top 10 or so on the Termanillo and he could push for a podium if the legs are good, but I don't think so. Then it's a free-for-all as a mix of strong TT'ers who can climb and climbers who can do a decent short TT will all come in to the mix for the remaining top 10 places. It should be fascinating and next Sunday's stage should be well worth watching
Recommendations:
Backed Alberto Contador - 2.5pts at 11/8 with Bet365 (maybe wait a few days for a better price)
Backed Mikel Nieve - 0.5pts each-way at 80/1 with Bet365 (take the 50/1 each-way)
Backed Leopold Konig - 0.3pts each-way at 125/1 with Bet365 (take the 66/1 each-way)
Rigoberto Uran - 1pts each-way at 8/1 with Boylesports
Match Bets
Treble of Contador to beat Quintana, Uran to beat Nibali, Kreuziger to beat Rodriguez - 2pts at 6/4 with PP
