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Published on Thursday, 28 August 2014 21:56

Vuelta a España St. 7

Alhendín to Alcaudete

Friday August 29th, 169kms 

Stage 7 follows hot on the heels of our first summit finish to La Zubia with another summit finish after an up and down day in the 'medium mountains' north-west of Granada in the province of Jaen. A lumpy stage sees them going up and down all day but over only two categorised climbs and only a Cat 2 and 3 at that. 

The finish will be another challenge, although it is not as tough as stage five's finish with the last 5kms dragging up at an average of just 3.2%. The last two kilometres is a bit steeper though, closer to 4.5%, but still nowhere near the 10-12% of the day before.

It could well be a day a breakaway wins it though, we might see our first breakaway succes of the Vuelta. With a hard stage the day before in the heat and a little order brought to the GC, we might see a little truce today, the profile looks perfect for a break and there are bound to be several interested. Wednesday's stage 5 only saw Tony Martin and Pim Ligthart give it a go, and even though they were something like 1'30" ahead Martin had had enough of the heat and dropped back to the peloton. The heat has been a killer so far, but it looks like it will be a fair bit cooler on Friday, only reaching a maximum of around 33º!! Well compared to 40º that's quite cool!

Stage 6 was a bit of a disaster with Dan Martin struggling in the heat and failing to stay with the main winning group. Only Chaves saved it from being a total whitewash beating Pardilla. A nasty 5.2pt loss undoing all the good work from the day before.. It was a fascinating finish though with Valverde giving his haters even more reason to hate him after driving hard at the front all the way up the final climb and still managing to find the legs to sprint away and win the stage. No team loyalty there waiting for his Captain Quintana as he struggled to stay with Contador and Froome. Even Tens Dam was questioning the 'power' that Valverde found today.. Quintana as I suspected isn't 100% yet and lost some time, but not a lot. There were also impressive rides from Chaves, Nieve, Aru, Gesink and Barguil. 

The Route

A reasonably short stage at 169kms sees them heading predominantly in a north westerly direction after leaving Alhendín, which sits just to the south-west of Stage 6's finish in La Zubia. After a flat opening 32kms the road suddenly kicks up to the Alto de Íllora, a Cat 3 climb which is just under 8kms long and averages 5.8%. It's where the early break should go and where we may see the grupetto form, but 5.8% for 8kms so early in the stage should be manageable for most. 

It's a very rolling profile then for the next 70kms as they take in the two sprint points, expect Matthews, Degenkolb and Bouhanni to be scrapping it out, or we may even see the likes of Chris Froome get involved like he did on stage 5, stealing 2 bonus seconds. At the 110km mark they hit the Alto Ahillo, a Cat 2 climb over 12.2kms. This is a longer climb but is still only at a relatively easy gradient, averaging just 4% but there are parts that are a bit steeper towards the top. It could shake out a few here but you'd think we'll see a relatively large group hit the descent and the rolling charge to the base of the final climb over the next 40kms.

They actually pass through the finishing line after 113kms but only cut in to some of the final climb coming as they do from the southern direction. They then head off out on a loop of 56kms or so, taking in the final climb of the day. This final climb is a far different beast from the day before, it's far longer for a start, being over 14kms of a drag from the town of Noguerones, but it averages only 2.1%. The last few kilometres get a bit steeper though and the last 2 average 4.5%. The road is pretty straight for the last kilometres as they head around Alcaudete to the finish, if there is a break within reach they will be in the peloton's line of sight and will have nowhere to hide!

Contenders and Favourites

As I said before, this could very well be a stage for a breakaway - needle in a haystack time again.. but there are a few 'likely lads' that we should consider - the likes of Tony Martin, Adam Hansen, David Millar, the old guard, could get involved on a rolling, but not too difficult day like today. Smaller Pro-Continental teams like MTN-Qhubeka, Caja Rural and IAM Cycling will probably look to get involved. This could mean the likes of Janse Van Rensburg, Amets Txurruka again, Mas Bonet again or Aramendia, Seb Hinault or Johan Tschopp could also be in our break. We could also get the likes of Trek putting someone in the break (Jungels or Arredondo?) or Lampre-Merida (Serpa or Anacona?) or BMC (Wyss or Nerz?). As you can see, it's almost impossible to pick who'll get in the break. 

The thing is I give the break around a 25% chance of staying away today, so it's going to be a bit like stage 6 today where the break had a huge lead with just 50km to go - will they have more success in holding off the bunch? It's hard to know who will be doing all the chasing - if Matthews or Degenkolb fancy it, then OGE and G-S will be left to do all the work.. If the break doesn't make it we could well see a similar outcome to stage 5 where a reduced peloton fought out the finish, with maybe Matthews and Degenkolb still be in there to scrap it out on the run to the line. 

Nacer Bouhanni could well be still there heading to the finish like we saw on stage 5 (when I predicted he wouldn't make it over that final climb), but even if he is I think he might struggle with the last two kilometres. Instead, they look perfect for Deggers and Bling, the gradient of 4-4.5% should be manageable for them. Michael Matthews may well find this finish a lot more to his liking compared to Degenkolb, it may just be a bit too hard for Deggers this time. Sure enough, when the prices came out tonight on Paddy Power (about 12 hours earlier than yesterday) they had Matthews at 9/4.. I tried to take a bet on that and it had been cut to 2/1 by the time I got through the betslip so I left it. Luckily I did as not long after, Bet365 came out with 3/1 Matthews and I had 2pts win on that. I think he has a serious chance of taking the stage and cutting Degenkolb's lead in the points jersey competition.

Like in my prediction for Stage 5 though, there really could be anyone in the next ten places or so! We may see the likes of Froome and Contador or Quintana/Valverde try to blow things apart, but I can't really see it happening on such sedate slopes (for them!). The Belkin boys are still going well (so well that they lead the Team Classification, which I picked them for at 13/2!) and Hofland and Martens could be involved again at the finish, as could Gesink or Kelderman even. I think Martens has the best sprint on him for this kind of stage and as I have been cheering him on a few times already I'll give him one more chance at 50/1 with PP. It's interesting that PP have Hofland at only 22/1 for the stage, they must either have taken a bet on him or think he is the one they will work for tomorrow. He is 66/1 with William Hill if you agree with that.

BMC could see Sammy Sanchez go on the attack, but maybe not just yet, but they also have Evans and Gilbert who might like this finish. These slopes at 4% or so could also see the likes of Tony Martin or Cancellara launch an attack, or even Dan Martin again like on stage 3 - he might be out to try to make up for today..  

I think though we will see OGE take control coming to the final few kilometres, assisted by Movistar and Giant-Shimano with OGE taking it up in the last 2kms to push on and lead out Matthews who should be strong enough to take the sprint. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Michael Matthews at 3/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Paul Martens at 50/1 with PP

Match Bets 

Matthews to beat Gilbert, Degenkolb to beat Bouhanni, Pardilla to beat Navarro, Caruso to beat S Sanchez - 2pts at 2.58/1 with Bet365.

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