Details

Published on Monday, 18 August 2014 22:23

Vuelta a España Stage1

Jerez de la Frontera to Jerez de la Frontera 

Saturday August 23rd, 12.6kms 

The opening stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España takes place on Saturday afternoon with a Team Time Trial over 12.6kms in the town of Jerez de la Frontera. It's shouldn't create too big a time gap between all of the main contenders, but we will get our first red jersey wearer of the race, the question is, who will it be?

"Jerez is a municipality in the province of Cadiz in the autonomous community of Andalusia. It's the 2014 European City of Wine, is renowned for its extensive wine tradition, its strong flamenco roots and its historical link to horses, three symbols for which it is internationally known and that are celebrated through a very busy festive calendar including such highlights as the Horse Fair, Holy Week, the Jerez Festival or the Motorcycling Grand Prix held at the Jerez Speed Circuit.

On top of all this, Jerez is commemorating 750 years since its incorporation to the Crown of Castille with an activity-packed programme all year long." 

That's what the tourist/wikipedia guide says about the city, but as far as we're concerned, we're only interested in the 12.6kms of road around the town that they are going to be racing on!

The TTT starts really late in the afternoon, something the Spaniards seem to like doing and it makes from great tea-time viewing. The first team rolls off the start ramp at 19:04 local time and the last rolls off at 20:28, and at 12.6kms it should take them only about 13-14 minutes to complete the course 

This stage was a lot longer last year at 27.4kms and was won by Astana led by Nibali, Kangert and Fuglsang from Radioshack and OPQS and although the distance was over twice as long there was still only 10" and 16" separating first, second and third, so expect only 5" to 10" or less to separate the top two or three here today. In 2012 Movistar won by 10" from OPQS. 

The Route

The course is dead flat - so flat it almost looks like they made a mistake in that profile image below! It is very technical though - I think I've counted 18 roundabouts and a number of other sharp turns along the way. After starting in the south-west of the city and heading north-east past the university of Cadiz they take a sharp left after 4.6kms and another left on to the Av Europa. Then after 7.2kms they take a hard right very near the finish line on to the Av. Alcalde Álvaro Domecq where they go straight out to the roundabout at the end of it, do a 180 and then take a right, do another 180, take a hard right and power back the way they came to the finish!

It is tricky, it is dangerous, let's hope there are no problems like in Belfast. As Jerez is only 12.6kms from the Atlantic coast we could get a strong wind blow around the course as well. It will suit a well-drilled outfit who can handle all the accelerations and decelerations through the bends and roundabouts.

Contenders and Favourites

When I started writing up the course information early in the week I had it in my head that OPQS would be very hard to beat here. All they have to do almost is just sit on Tony Martin's wheel as he would probably almost win on his own anyway! But as the week went on and I started studying line-ups I got to thinking Trek were looking pretty hot as well with Cancellara to marshall some pretty strong troops in Vandewalle (Tour of Poland TT winner), Jungels, Sergent and Zubeldia.

And sure enough, when the prices came out they are pretty close in the betting with TFR marginally shorter at 9/4 on Betfair to 7/2 for OPQS. They're 2/1 and 3/1 best with the bookies. Closely behind them come BMC at around 4/1 and then there's a jump up to 10/1 for Movistar and Sky.

TFR do look strong, and there aren't many better than Fabian Cancellara at tight, technical courses. If he can pass on some of his knowledge and experience to the team, I think they will be extremely well drilled. Cancellara, Jungels, Vandewalle are three superb time triallists, and hey are joined by one of the leadout horses normally, Jesse Sergent. Popovych knows how to time trial as well. I think they are strong favourites and the 9/4 on Betfair is just about backable, I'd like to get closer to 3/1 but not sure that's going to happen.

OPQS have of course World Time Trial champion in Tony Martin, and he is joined by Woet Poels, Tom Boonen, Pieter Serry and their GC man, Rigo Uran. Uran will want to get the race off  to the best possible start and so they will be well motivated for him.

BMC have Evans, Dennis, Sánchez, Gilbert, Nerz, Quinziato, Wysse and Warbasse and on paper they look very strong. But I have some lingering doubt about them. Dennis is new in the team, unlikely they have spent much team effort getting him ready for this. Sánchez has doubts over his form (even though they say he is ready and very motivated) and there are a few youngsters in there too which may cause them issues. 

Moving down to Sky? Yes, very capable of a big time with Froome driving things, and he is ably backed up by a strong, experienced team so I'd expect them to be in the top 6, not more than about 10-20" behind the winners. Movistar have an excellent line-up for the mountains and it isn't bad at all against the clock either. Malori, Amador and Castroviejo are three top TTers, and just below them you have Spanish TT champion Valverde and Quintana who finished 2nd in the TT in the Burgos just last week. 

Below that you have a whole host of teams who could be pretty close to each other - Giant-Shimano, OGE, Garmin-Sharp, Tinkoff-Saxo, Astana etc, some of which are huge prices like 150 and 200/1. The only one that interests me a little at a big price are Lotto-Belisol who are as big as 250/1. WIth Monfort, Van den Broeck, de Clercq in the team they could pull off a surprise.

Overall though, I think Trek Factory Racing have just the right blend of power, technical abilities, youth and experience to guide them to a tight victory in this. OPQS, or the Tony Martin show, might be a bit scrappy and I think they just lack a little bit of strength in depth that TFR seems to have. Movistar could run BMC close for the 3rd spot on the podium and if there is a shock to be had, it could come from Belkin or Lotto-Belisol.

Recommendations

2pts win on Trek Factory Racing at 9/4 (3.3) on Betfair. 

0.5pts each-way on Movistar at 10/1 with Coral.

Match Bets 

Trek to beat BMC - 2pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Sky to beat Orica Green - Edge,  Belkin to beat Garmin-Sharp, Giant-Shimano to beat Astana 1pt on the treble pays 2.6/1

Stage 2 Preview >>